Poland’s industrial production grew 11.2% y/y in December, more than doubling its growth rate in comparison to an expansion of 5.4% y/y recorded the preceding month, unadjusted data from statistical office GUS showed on January 25.
The data affirm the industrial sector’s post-lockdown recovery despite tighter restrictions at home and abroad, as Europe continues efforts to contain the COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic.
“The double-digit growth reflected the low base from 2019, a positive calendar effect, improving sentiment in the manufacturing sector, as well as rising new industrial orders,” Erste said in a comment.
Seasonally adjusted, industrial production growth also stepped up sharply, expanding 7.1% y/y in December, after adding 3.5% y/y the preceding month.
The monthly reading showed an unadjusted decline of 4.4% (-1.6% m/m in November) but an expansion of 0.5% upon adjustment (November +1.2% m/m).
Broken down by the main segments, output grew unadjusted 12.8% y/y (+7.2% y/y in November) in manufacturing and 11.3% y/y (November +7.4% y/y) in water supply and waste management. Output also grew 9.7% y/y (November -3.4% y/y) in mining and quarrying, data show. A fall of 2.3% y/y (-10.5% y/y in November) in the utility sector held back the headline figure to an extent in December.
Overall, production increased in 28 out of 34 industrial segments in December in y/y terms. November saw y/y expansion in 24 segments.
Production of electrical equipment and computers, electronic and optical devices expanded the fastest. Output in the “other transport equipment” category as well as in the production of coking coal and products of oil refinery utility fell most significantly.
In January-December, industrial production retreated 1%, GUS also reported.
Looking forward, real economy data for December arrived in line or above expectations, proving that the re-introduction of lockdown measures in the fourth quarter had a much milder impact on economic activity compared to the spring.
"We expect Q4 growth to land around -1.5% y/y, marking only a marginal contraction on a quarterly basis. We see full-year GDP growth at -2.6%," Erste said.
"The economy has partially adapted to functioning in a pandemic ... although the intensification of the pandemic in some countries and the ensuing lockdowns may slightly slow down the pace of recovery," Bank Millennium said.