Argentina is projected to lead Latin American economic growth with a GDP expansion of 5.2% in 2025 and 4.3% in 2026, according to the latest OECD Economic Outlook. These figures position Argentina as the strongest performer among Latin American G20 countries and second globally, trailing only India.

The robust growth projections represent a dramatic turnaround from 2024's 1.7% recession and mark an upward revision from the OECD's late 2024 forecast of 3.6% for 2025. The organisation attributed this economic recovery to President Javier Milei's aggressive reform measures, including public sector layoffs and state institution closures, bolstered by a new IMF agreement and a $20bn loan facility.

However, significant challenges remain. Argentina is expected to maintain the highest inflation rate among G20 nations, though the OECD projects substantial deceleration from 219.9% in 2024 to 36.6% in 2025 and 14.9% in 2026. The organisation revised its 2025 inflation estimate upward from 28.4% due to slower-than-expected price stabilisation. OECD's inflation projection is slightly higher than Moody's, which expects a 30% inflation rate by the end of 2025.

Meanwhile, OECD's economic growth forecast appears to be within reach, particularly after Argentina's national statistics agency, INDEC, reported that the country posted an economic growth of 6.1% y/y over the first quarter of 2025.

This economic trajectory reflects the notable effects of Milei's "shock therapy" approach, which the libertarian leader has been relentlessly pursuing since taking office in December 2023. Aggressive fiscal consolidation and market-oriented reforms appear to be generating strong growth momentum and have won praise from multilateral lenders such as the IMF and the World Bank, although controversial measures such as sweeping public spending cuts and state workers' layoffs have sparked public opposition.