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Argentine President Javier Milei faces a first electoral test in Buenos Aires province's September 7 local election, with the outcome potentially shaping the trajectory of his radical economic reforms ahead of October's crucial midterm elections. Representing 40% of Argentina's electorate, Buenos Aires province has long been a Peronist stronghold.
An August survey by consulting firm Analogias shows Peronism's leftist Fuerza Patria leading with 36.9% support compared to La Libertad Avanza's 32.3%.
The libertarian leader's ruthless austerity programme has successfully tamed runaway inflation, with annual rates expected to fall below 30% this year from triple-digit figures previously, according to Reuters. It has also earned praise from the IMF, which has greenlighted a $20bn bailout package in April and approved the first EFF review in late July, despite ongoing concerns about the country's critically low foreign currency reserves. However, his drastic public spending cuts have triggered widespread protests from retirees, teachers, and doctors, creating mounting social tensions. Over 50 universities took to the streets to protest this past week.
The president's strategy for maintaining his unorthodox economic experiment depends heavily on electoral success to generate investor confidence and prevent the opposition-controlled Congress from passing legislation that could undermine fiscal discipline.
Recent polling by D'Alessio IROL/Berensztein indicates growing political challenges, with Milei's approval rating dropping to 43% from 46%, while disapproval has risen to 55%.
The Buenos Aires election represents a crucial barometer for Milei's political future and reform agenda. A poor showing could embolden opposition forces, which are rapidly reorganising after the sentencing of Peronist former president Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, and complicate his ability to maintain the fiscal discipline that has underpinned his inflation success, potentially jeopardising both his economic plans and political survival ahead of the decisive October midterms.
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