Malawi votes on September 16 in a high-stakes general election, with President Lazarus Chakwera seeking a second term against former presidents Peter Mutharika and Joyce Banda, ex-central bank governor Dalitso Kabambe, and Vice-President Michael Usi.

Economic hardship, fuel and foreign-exchange shortages, and weak service delivery have fuelled voter discontent. Analysts say no candidate is likely to secure an outright majority, making a runoff probable.

Reuters reported that Chakwera faces frustration over “high inflation, fuel and foreign-exchange shortages, and graft scandals.” Inflation peaked above 30% earlier this year, while fuel and forex scarcity continue to undermine daily commerce. The agency said the race reflects “deep public discontent” despite growth initiatives during his administration.

The World Bank’s Malawi Economic Monitor, published in July, cut the country’s 2025 growth forecast to 2.0%, down from 4.2%, citing a weak agricultural season, reduced donor inflows, and persistent foreign-exchange shortages.

Inflation is expected to remain elevated, it said, while the fiscal deficit could widen to 8.7% of GDP this year from 7.8% in 2024, on the back of election-year spending and lost US budget support. Meanwhile, food insecurity has worsened due to climate shocks and import constraints, the Bank warned.

The IMF’s Executive Board, in its July review, projected Malawi’s economy would expand gradually, with growth rising from 2.4% in 2025 to 3.4% by 2029. It said inflation is expected to ease to around 15%, though it would remain high by regional standards.

The Fund warned that the country continues to face severe challenges, including unsustainable public debt estimated at 88% of GDP in 2024, an interest burden of about 7% of GDP, as well as chronic foreign-exchange shortages and fuel scarcity. The IMF Board stressed the urgent need for structural reforms to restore macroeconomic stability and rebuild investor and donor confidence.

Even so, according to Semafor, analysts do not expect any candidate to win outright. The outlet noted that Chakwera has pointed to job creation and the rollout of agricultural “mega-farms” as achievements, but his tenure has also been overshadowed by natural disasters, notably Cyclone Freddy in 2023, which displaced hundreds of thousands.

Bloomberg quoted Chakwera as apologising for the fuel shortage, blaming sabotage at the National Oil Company of Malawi. “This is unacceptable and I will not tolerate it,” he said, promising accountability. Shortages triggered long queues at service stations and sharpened criticism of the government just days before the vote.

Regional bodies have sought to bolster credibility. The African Union and COMESA announced on September 9 that they had deployed a joint election observation mission led by former Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn. The AU said the mission “aims to provide an independent, objective and impartial assessment of the conduct of the general elections in line with international, continental and regional standards for democratic elections.”

Reuters added that Mutharika has pledged to stabilise the economy and reduce the cost of living if elected, while Banda has campaigned on restoring trust in leadership. Semafor reported that Vice-President Usi, a former actor running as an independent, “could emerge as a kingmaker if the race goes to a second round.”