The expiration of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) on September 30 has left exporters across sub-Saharan Africa bracing for sharp losses, as Washington failed to extend the long-running trade preference scheme. Without renewal, African governments and companies warn they will be forced to seek alternative markets or negotiate bilateral deals to preserve access.

Introduced in 2000 under President Bill Clinton, the programme gave countries duty-free access to more than 6,800 tariff lines, including about 1,800 products not covered by the US Generalised System of Preferences. Eligibility required countries to uphold democratic standards, respect human rights and cooperate with Washington on security issues.

Data from the US Trade Representative show that imports under AGOA were valued at about $9.7bn in 2023, dominated by in crude oil, motor vehicles and apparel. That compares with $3.8 trillion in total US imports, highlighting AGOA’s small footprint in US trade, even as it provides a vital source of export earnings and employment for African economies.

The Trump administration has voiced support for extending the non-reciprocal scheme for one year, but any extension would require congressional approval. The accord lapsed at midnight Washington time after Congress missed the renewal deadline. Lawmakers remain consumed by a budget standoff that triggered a government shutdown on October 1, limiting prospects for quick action.

Members of Congress have given mixed signals: Senator Chris Coons, a Democrat on the Foreign Relations Committee, said earlier this year that “letting AGOA lapse would be a strategic mistake,” while Republican trade committee members have argued for pairing any renewal with tighter reciprocal provisions.

AGOA’s future is further complicated by Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, imposed on August 7, which added duties of 10% to 30% on a wide range of African imports, effectively superseding the pact’s duty-free preferences.

The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development described AGOA as mutually beneficial, noting it boosted African competitiveness while offering US firms more diverse sourcing and lower input costs.

While AGOA accounted for only a marginal portion of total US imports, it represented a critical share of exports for participating countries, underscoring the potential disruption if no replacement framework emerges soon.

The International Trade Centre in Geneva projects a sharp decline in shipments of apparel and manufactured goods from Kenya, Tanzania, Cape Verde, Lesotho and Eswatini. South Africa, the continent’s largest economy, faces a 17% decline in exports, with metals, vehicles and chemicals among the most exposed, according to an ITC analysis circulated on September 25.

Local concerns are mounting. In Kenya, Africanews reported that textile exporters are preparing for layoffs, warning that without AGOA they cannot compete with Asian rivals. Nairobi garment manufacturer Pankaj Bedi told the outlet: “If AGOA goes away we have zero chance to compete with the Asian countries.” Kenya’s textile exports to the US grew from about $50mn in 2000 to roughly $500mn in recent years under AGOA, according to the report.

Kenya’s Nation newspaper warned that tariffs on Kenyan exports to the US could “triple” following AGOA’s expiry, threatening thousands of jobs in the country’s garment factories and discouraging investment in industrial parks set up to benefit from the scheme.

In South Africa, News24 noted that the White House has supported a one-year rollover of the programme, though many see this as a stopgap. Trade Minister Parks Tau told Reuters he remained optimistic about renewal, citing bipartisan support in Washington, but cautioned that the 30% tariffs already imposed on some South African goods were eroding the value of any extension.