During Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s visit to Washington for the C1+5 summit earlier this month, Kazakhstan signed a memorandum of understanding with the US government on critical minerals, an agreement that observers said forms part of Washington’s broader strategy to diversify supply chains away from China. The same visit also featured discussions between Kazakh officials and “Western partners”, which paid particular attention to critical minerals, including uranium, tungsten and rare earth elements (REEs), and focused on “moving from extraction to processing and integration into US and EU supply chains,” Kazakh state-run news outlet The Astana Times reported.

A press release from Cove Capital announced a $1.1bn agreement to develop the Northern Katpar and Upper Kayrakty tungsten deposits, signed during the summit that brought US President Donald Trump face to face with the five presidents of Central Asia at the White House. The company’s local affiliate, Cove Kaz, has already begun preparatory project work. There are plans to develop downstream refining capacity to produce ammonium paratungstate and other tungsten compounds. 

Donald Trump met all five of Central Asia's presidents, including Kazakhstan's Kassym Jomart-Tokayev, above, at a C5+1 summit at the White House on November 6. Critical minerals were top of the agenda (Credit: Akorda.kz).

“Total project development costs at Northern Katpar and Upper Kairakty are estimated at $1.1bn. The Export-Import Bank of the United States has issued a Letter of Interest for $900mn in financing, and the US International Development Finance Corporation has also issued a Letter of Interest,” the press release said. 

Other developments of interest include the Development Bank of Kazakhstan launching a $1bn financing programme – announced in late October – aimed at supporting projects in the extraction and processing of rare and critical materials. The initiative forms part of a wider push by the government and its Baiterek Holding to attract foreign investors and encourage downstream processing. 

Earlier, Tengrinews reported that Tokayev proposed a collaboration with Uzbekistan on rare earth extraction and processing, calling for a working group to study the issue and prepare recommendations for a mutually beneficial cooperation. 

In general terms, Kazakhstan has also been introducing legal reforms to clarify rules on ownership and capital entry, with the goal of shifting activities away from raw-material export toward value-added processing inside Kazakhstan, according to local media reports.

Analysts have expressed the belief that such developments in Kazakhstan were only made possible due to the dramatic geopolitical shift under instigated by Trump. 

Temur Umarov, a fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, wrote that “tt might seem that Central Asia could simply resign itself to its geographical fate and stick to maneuvering between China and Russia—especially since the United States is now abdicating its responsibilities as the world’s leading power. But the current U.S. administration is the easiest one so far for Central Asia to work with. Business interests can be used to attract Washington’s attention, and there is no longer any need for demonstrative distancing from Russia or commitment to democratic reforms,” 

Managing director at a US-based think tank Janus Forum, Darren Spinck, was quoted by The Astana Times as saying: “It aligns with the Trump Administration’s increasingly aligned priorities: the elevation of the Trans-Caspian region, the diversification of US supply chains and transport corridors, American de-risking from strategic sectors tied to the PRC, and the forthcoming National Security Strategy’s anticipated focus on hemispheric defense. All of these priorities converge on one essential requirement: ensuring a stable, diversified flow of rare earths and critical minerals essential to sustaining North America’s technology and defense industrial bases,”. 

Unhelpful realities

That said, Kazakhstan’s aspirations of becoming a rare earths and critical minerals hub could be very much stymied by some unhelpful realities.

“Mining rare earth metals is labour-intensive, expensive, and requires long-term planning. Just exploration, feasibility studies, and equipment installation can take up to 10 years. Investors will only enter the market if they have confidence their projects will remain stable for at least 25-30 years,” economist and political analyst Peter Svoyk told The Times of Central Asia in February, arguing that geopolitical uncertainty stands as the biggest obstacle to investment in Kazakhstan’s rare-earth sector. 

Unless the Trump adminstration's geopolitical tragectory persists when Trump is gone from the presidency, it is unlikely that investors will see this kind of stability in the long term. 

“For the next five to 10 years, serious investments in rare earth metals will be limited. Instead, countries will focus on strengthening their existing supply chains and securing resources within their geopolitical blocs,” Svoyk added. 

“Central Asia holds at least 25 of the 54 minerals identified by the U.S. government as ‘critical,’ and vast quantities of many of them: 39% of global manganese, 30% of chromium, 20% of lead, 13% of zinc, and 9% of titanium. Kazakhstan alone produces 43% of the world’s uranium,” a research assistant professor at the Bush School of Government and Public Service, Texas A&M University, Edward Lemon, wrote for The Hill.

In April, the industry and construction ministry suggested that the Zhana Kazakhstan section of the Kuyrektykol area may contain 20mn tonnes of rare earth ore at an average grade of roughly 700 grams per tonne, equivalent to around 935,400 tonnes of recoverable rare earth oxides. However, according to media reports from September, geological exploration works showed that the deposit contains far more than earlier thought, with new figures indicating about 28.2mn tonnes of recoverable REEs.

Alibek Aldeney, deputy akim (governor) of the Karaganda region, noted that the exploration work also identified additional promising areas for gold, copper and tungsten, The Times of Central Asia reported.

“Foreign companies are already conducting surveys. This will allow us to expand our mineral resource base and create new production facilities for processing rare earth and precious metals,” Aldeney reportedly said.

Mining.com reported in May that the broader Kuyrektykol structure is estimated to contain 800,000 tonnes of rare earth metals, adding that Kazakhstan’s mineral endowment remains largely underexplored and could allow the nation to join the world’s top 10 producers if forecasts are borne out.

Geological work conducted during 2024–2025 identified 38 promising deposits of solid minerals, including REEs, Kazakh official news agency Kazinform reported. These discoveries add to the government’s catalogue of one 124 known REE sites, of which 37 have undergone preliminary exploration. Officials argue that the combination of new findings and the concentration of prospective areas around 420 kilometres (261 miles) from Astana could accelerate the establishment of a coherent rare earth industry. Local specialists, however, urge restraint.

Optimistic projections "premature"

Speaking to Euronews, Georgiy Freiman, head of the Professional Association of Independent Mining Experts, said that the optimistic projections are premature without comprehensive technical studies. He pointed to the absence of hydrogeological and geomechanical assessments and stressed the need for internationally recognised feasibility studies such as NI 43-101 or JORC before any field can be declared a deposit.

“Only when all these factors are analysed, and an economic model is developed can it truly be called a deposit,” he stated, adding that in the absence of these steps the claims remain speculative.

Maxim Klochkov, chief geologist at Tsemtrgeolsiemka—the company that discovered the Kuyrektykol prospect— previously told Sputnik Kazakhstan that the site was still classified as a prospective area with forecast resources.

“A deposit is an economically justified site with calculated reserves,” he said. “Everything else is just an area or occurrence.” 

Experts have further noted that mineralisation at several locations is complicated by host-rock conditions and potential thorium content, both of which may present difficulties in extraction and processing.

China is years ahead of anyone else in rare earth refining. As things stand, industry analysts say that for Kazakhstan to establish the capability it requires in this field would require an investment exceeding $3bn.

Regardless of actual reserves, Kazakhstan faces structural barriers to industrialising its rare earth sector. The country currently lacks any refining capacity and exports all REE output to China, whose processors dominate the global market and maintain extensive technological advantages. Industry analysts estimate that establishing domestic refining capability in Kazakhstan would require investment exceeding $3bn, alongside long-term commitments to build the necessary workforce, environmental safeguards and supply-chain infrastructure. The development of the Zhana Kazakhstan area alone could take six to 12 years, encompassing full geological appraisal, environmental review and commercial planning.

Export logistics remain another major obstacle for the prospective rare earth industry. Kazakhstan is investing heavily in the Middle Corridor, a combination of trans-Caspian routes, usually linking China to Europe via Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey, while also expanding capacity at the port of Aktau on the Caspian Sea. Aktau already handles uranium exports and could be adapted for rare earth shipments.

However, reliability remains a challenge. Canadian miner Cameco has noted that, for uranium shipments, the route has shown less predictability than traditional corridors through Russia. Transit along the Middle Corridor can take between 40 and 60 days, compared with 18 to 23 days via Russian rail lines.

A World Bank analysis concluded that the Middle Corridor suffers from insufficient multimodal infrastructure, including limited port, rail and shipping capacity, which contributes to delays at border crossings and during port handling. The study stated that significant investment will be required over the next decade, although short-term efficiency gains could be achieved through improved coordination, logistics management and digitalisation.

As Kazakhstan weighs its geological prospects, industrial limitations and strategic partnerships, experts maintain that expectations should remain measured until the country undertakes thorough assessments of its most promising sites.

For Freiman, the path forward depends on disciplined study rather than speculation. “Without a full assessment, it remains mere speculation,” he said.