Kazakhstan's Constitutional Court ruled on July 7 that President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev would be eligible to run for another presidential term under the country's newly adopted constitution.

The ruling follows Tokayev's own request for a constitutional interpretation after Kazakhstan approved a new basic law that came into force at the beginning of July. While the constitution preserves a limit of a single seven-year presidential term, the court determined that terms served under the previous constitution do not count toward that restriction. The decision, published on the Constitutional Court website, effectively gives Tokayev the legal option of seeking another mandate despite constitutional changes introduced in 2022 that had appeared to limit him to one seven-year term beginning that year.

It remains unclear whether the president intends to seek another term, as well as how the ruling will affect the political timetable. Authorities have not indicated whether Tokayev would need to call an early presidential election under the new constitutional framework or whether he will complete his current term, due to expire in 2029, before seeking re-election. 

The constitutional overhaul, drafted and approved within weeks earlier this year, has prompted widespread speculation about Tokayev's long-term political plans. There had previously been rumours that the Kazakh president was eyeing a new role as UN secretary general. The latest court ruling draws comparisons with constitutional changes during the presidency of Nursultan Nazarbayev, Tokayev’s predecessor, that similarly reset presidential term limits.

Kazakh political analysts are widely interpreting the constitutional court’s announcement as a “fail-safe” that signals the Kazakh elites that the system will remain stable and prevents any potential inter-elite competition and in-fighting, which can often take-shape amid anticipation of upcoming transfer of power.

"Given that the next scheduled presidential election is due to take place in three years, in September 2029, this effectively serves as a political safeguard against the system fragmenting,” TengriNews news agency quoted Kazakh political analyst Gaziz Abishev as saying. “According to the Constitutional Court's interpretation, President Tokayev has the right to run for re-election, although that does not necessarily mean he will do so. What it does mean is that he will have that lever at his disposal."

Presumably, this “safeguard” is meant to support the restoration of the office of vice president, a position abolished in 1995, establishing a formal successor should a president become unable to serve. The vice presidential post is widely seen by Kazakh observers as a mechanism for making Tokayev’s planned successor as obvious and as transparent as possible to both the Kazakh citizens and the elites. Under these assumptions, Tokayev’s potential reelection can be viewed as a last resort option that Tokayev has chosen to keep in case his plans fail to materialise.

"History has repeatedly shown that expectations of an imminent transfer of power often serve as a trigger for the premature intensification of intra-elite competition and a rise in political uncertainty,” Kazakh political analyst Marat Shibutov wrote in post on his Telegram channel.

“Today, the Constitutional Court removed any ambiguity surrounding the interpretation of the constitutional provision on the number of presidential terms, sending a clear signal to the political elite to stop any speculation about the future of the institution of the presidency. The confirmed possibility of the incumbent president running for office again should be regarded as an additional factor contributing to political stability and the preservation of domestic stability." 

Under the new constitution, the president will nominate the vice president, subject to parliamentary approval. If lawmakers reject the nominee twice, the president gains the authority to dissolve parliament.

New constitution

Officials have described the constitutional changes as creating a strong president and parliament, and an accountable government, but critics argue the changes increase the concentration of power in the presidency.

Among the most significant institutional changes is the replacement of Kazakhstan's bicameral parliament with a new 145-seat unicameral legislature, to be known as the Kurultai. Snap parliamentary elections are scheduled for August 23.

The constitution expands presidential influence over key state institutions. The head of state will appoint members of the Constitutional Court, Central Election Commission and Supreme Audit Chamber, with repeated parliamentary rejection of nominees also triggering the possibility of dissolving the legislature.

Although deputies to the Kurultai will be elected through party lists, no genuine opposition parties are currently registered in Kazakhstan, making it likely that the new parliament will remain dominated by pro-government forces.

Tokayev, a career diplomat who previously served as Kazakhstan's foreign minister, prime minister and a senior UN official, became president in 2019 after being chosen as the successor to longtime leader Nursultan Nazarbayev.

His political position strengthened after violent unrest in January 2022 left hundreds dead. Tokayev described the events as an attempted coup orchestrated by figures loyal to Nazarbayev, and made a decisive break with his predecessor.

Nazarbayev, who governed Kazakhstan for nearly three decades after becoming the country's first president in 1990, oversaw multiple constitutional revisions that extended his time in office. Amendments adopted in 1998 increased presidential terms from five to seven years, while a 2000 Constitutional Council ruling determined that his first elected term did not count under the constitution adopted in 1995, allowing him to seek re-election again. He ultimately secured a fifth term in 2015 with nearly 98% of the vote.

His rule was widely criticised by international rights groups for authoritarian governance, restrictions on political competition and entrenched corruption, while supporters credited him with maintaining stability and attracting foreign investment after the collapse of the Soviet Union.