The peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia has the potential to turn a region long defined by entrenched conflict into a hub of trade, transit and cooperation. Forged under US auspices in Washington, the deal promises not only to normalise relations between Baku and Yerevan but also to unlock a long-awaited transit route linking the Caspian to the Mediterranean. 

Azerbaijan expects its landmark peace agreement with Armenia to open up the South Caucasus to trade and investment, reinforcing the Azerbaijan’s role on the China-Europe ‘Middle Corridor’ route, the country’s ambassador to the UK Elin Suleymanov said in an interview with bne IntelliNews.

The long-elusive accord was struck between Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan at the White House on August 8. The two leaders committed to formally end decades of conflict, reopen transport links and create a transit route through southern Armenia connecting Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan exclave bordering Turkey. The project, dubbed the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity” (TRIPP), aims to guarantee unhindered connectivity for both sides.

“We need to make a choice of whether we want peace or perpetual conflict … it’s a very good sign that the people of Azerbaijan overwhelmingly supported peace,” Suleymanov told bne IntelliNews in a phone interview after the summit. 

“I am confident that Azerbaijan and Armenia will reconcile and become neighbours and partners. There is no reason not to be. That’s perhaps the only option for our people to have a secure, prosperous and peaceful future.”

Suleymanov said the shift in tone at the White House meeting was likely to reassure foreign investors. “Overall, the change of paradigm, the much more positive views engendered by the conversation in the White House, will significantly increase confidence for investors and everyone else in the region,” he said. 

“It’s important that the governments of Azerbaijan and Armenia demonstrated the will to move forward beyond the conflict. I think we all appreciate the leadership of President Trump. The courage of President Aliyev and Prime Minister Pashinyan should also be recognised.”

He specifically referenced the roadmap and principles proposed by Aliyev after the cessation of hostilities in 2020, saying “the progress on peace, including focus on reopening communications and restoring economic ties” is based on these. 

The hope is that the deal will enable a normal diplomatic relationship between Baku and Yerevan, allowing trade and investment between the neighbouring states to flourish, while also opening up a critical trade route through the region. 

The TRIPP project revives a long-standing demand from Baku for a land link to Nakhchivan – known in Azerbaijan as the Zangezur corridor – but reframes it as a joint initiative with Armenia and “mutually agreed third parties”. 

Much of the work on the Azerbaijani side has already been carried out, with a railway to the Armenian border now close to completion. When competed, the route is expected to pave the way for Turkey to fully reopen its border with Armenia, while giving Yerevan access to major regional transit networks.

Moreover, the route will ease a critical bottleneck on the Middle Corridor route connecting Asia and Europe via Central Asia and the South Caucasus. 

“This is the route of the future,” Suleymanov said. “The economies of Central Asia offer enormous promise, and that promise could only be realised if we develop our transit corridor. But it’s much more than transit – it’s also people working together, connectivity, industries being built along the route, cities developed and new trade routes.

“Azerbaijan has always been a crucial keystone in the Middle Corridor … Now, with the potential opening of the Zangezur section we could see much greater integration for the region. Azerbaijan has become an economic engine for the region already. But after the conflict we could now involve Armenia as part of the regional integration. I think this benefits Armenia, it benefits us, it benefits the whole region and the entire middle route and everyone who invests and lives along the route.”

The agreement brings deeper US engagement in the region. Alongside the peace declaration, Baku and Yerevan signed separate agreements with Washington to expand cooperation in energy, technology and trade.

Baku and Washington agreed to set up a working group to propose a charter of strategic partnership covering transport, energy, artificial intelligence and other new technologies. Azerbaijani energy firm SOCAR also signed a memorandum of understanding with ExxonMobil on oil and gas exploration.

“It will be an all-encompassing framework which will institutionalise our relationship,” Suleymanov said of the planned US-Azerbaijan charter. “This is not only economic, but there will be more emphasis on the economic relationship this time than ever in previous years.”

The summit has lifted hopes for a new economic era in the South Caucasus, with the agreement between the two sides creating an opening for infrastructure investment, cross-border ventures and deeper regional integration at a time when global supply chains are shifting.