Following twelve days of intense warfare between Iran and Israel, a ceasefire has been reached through direct US intervention and diplomatic support from other nations. Yet the agreement that has emerged creates only a precarious peace, as neither side has achieved its fundamental strategic objectives. The question now is whether this fragile arrangement signals lasting détente or merely sets the stage for renewed escalation.

In the early hours of June 24, President Donald Trump announced the Iran-Israel ceasefire, catching many off guard amid the continuing intensive combat operations. The breakthrough came after both US and Israeli forces struck key elements of Iran's nuclear programme at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan facilities. Iran's response was swift and significant: attacks not only on Israeli territory but also on the American Al-Udeid base in Qatar, home to US Central Command headquarters.

Military operations had reached a critical juncture where further escalation posed unacceptable risks for all parties. Iran's parliament had threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz—strategically vital for global oil markets—whilst Israel faced the prospect of renewed massive bombardments. The diplomatic breakthrough emerged after this exchange of blows. President Trump contacted Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu directly to explore possibilities for ending the military phase of the conflict. Almost immediately after discussions with Israel, Trump instructed his team—Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and special envoy Steve Witkoff—to begin negotiations with the Islamic Republic.

As Trump characteristically declared: "Both Israel and Iran came to me almost simultaneously and said: 'PEACE!' I understood that the time had come. Peace and the Middle East are the real winners! Both nations will see tremendous LOVE, PEACE AND PROSPERITY in their future." The primary communication channel between Washington and Tehran ran through Qatar. Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani personally spoke with Iran's senior leadership, including Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. According to Reuters sources, it was Qatar that secured Iran's agreement to the US-proposed ceasefire.

Whilst no official statements were made, Russia likely played a mediating role as well. Less than 24 hours before the ceasefire, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that Moscow was prepared to support Iran in various ways. That same day, Russian President Vladimir Putin held talks with Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi. Putin noted that Russia remained in contact with both Israel and Iran and was proposing ideas for conflict resolution. By some accounts, Russia's condemnation of the unprovoked Israeli attack on Iranian territory strengthened the Islamic Republic's negotiating position. However, no full US-Russia partnership emerged on Middle Eastern issues. Although Trump initially expressed interest in Russian involvement, he later rejected possible mediation efforts by Putin, preferring to demonstrate his singular peacemaking role and saying that Putin had his problems to sort out with Ukraine.

China may also have played a part in de-escalation. Marco Rubio had previously asked Beijing to persuade Tehran not to block the Strait of Hormuz, though no official confirmation of Chinese participation exists. China is a big purchaser of oil and gas supplies from the region and would be the most affected if Iran were to choke off the Persian Gulf. Under the Iran-Israel ceasefire conditions, Tehran was to halt strikes on Israel at midnight on  June 23. Israel would reciprocate by ceasing its attacks twelve hours later, at midday on June 24. Trump said that "during each phase of the ceasefire, the other side will maintain peace and respect."

Israel confirmed its agreement to the ceasefire but reserved "the right to respond in case of new attacks." Iran's position proved more ambiguous: the Foreign Ministry initially stated that "the final decision on ending military operations will be based on Israel's actions," but authorities later accepted the proposed conditions. Trump announced his diplomatic success publicly on Truth Social: "The ceasefire has taken effect. Please do not violate it!" He declared the war officially ended.

He also posted a warning on Truth Social against Israel resuming its fight: "ISRAEL. DO NOT DROP THOSE BOMBS. IF YOU DO IT IS A MAJOR VIOLATION. BRING YOUR PILOTS HOME, NOW!"

However, the threat of continued strikes remained. The Israeli military reported detecting missile launches from Iran after the ceasefire announcement. Defence Minister Israel Katz subsequently ordered retaliatory strikes, which were carried out. In this context, Trump chose to maintain the de-escalation track, calling the ceasefire violation "unintentional." He demanded Tel Aviv refrain from "dropping bombs on Iran" and received Netanyahu's promise to "abstain from new strikes."

Current developments do not permit calling the present scenario "long-term peaceful settlement," as neither side has fully accomplished its strategic objectives. The United States aimed to prevent Tehran from developing nuclear weapons. Washington authorised Israeli strikes on Iran to force the Islamic Republic back to nuclear programme and regional security negotiations from a deliberately weakened position. Following joint US-Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear infrastructure, significant damage was reported. Trump thus demonstrated American strength in the Middle East. However, according to various sources, portions of Iranian nuclear equipment escaped damage and were evacuated in advance. Iran retains the potential to restore its programme, though this could take years. Complete elimination of the threat has not occurred.

Iran agreed to the ceasefire without direct guarantees of sanctions relief or compensation. Simultaneously, the Islamic regime used the conflict to consolidate society. External threats united the Iranian people around the government, confirmed by the absence of mass domestic protests for the moment. How the domestic situation develops in Iran over the next few months post-conflict, however, is still up for debate.

Israel occupies the most advantageous position under ceasefire terms: formally, objectives of "eradicating the axis of resistance" have been realised, and Prime Minister Netanyahu has strengthened both his domestic and international positions, for the moment. Moreover, direct US-Iran conflict brought America back into Middle Eastern politics but on neither side looking at how angry Trump is with Israel specifically. Trump's initial attempts to conclude regional agreements to free resources for confronting China had created threats of isolation from external support for the Jewish state, where Israel stands now forcing the US president to drop the “f-bomb” to a rabble of reporters for the first time in history could potentially spell trouble for Netanyahu personally.

International media predominantly view prospects for long-term Iran-Israel peace with scepticism as it appeared out of the blue. The American press considers Trump's declaration of "eternal peace" in the Middle East nothing more than an illusion. Emphasis is placed on how, whilst ending hostilities strengthens the US President's position, doubts remain about real de-escalation prospects. The New York Times, for instance, believes none of the parties have come to recognise the necessity of ending the conflict, with all using victorious narratives in their domestic statements.

This is confirmed by publications in Iran's Keyhan newspaper, which focuses primarily on Iran's heroism and resilience. It emphasises that US actions, including strikes on nuclear facilities, met with a worthy response, whilst Trump's peace-making efforts are presented as Tehran's victory. The Times of Israel expresses no optimism regarding recent developments. It highlights the possibility of Iran restoring its nuclear programme and reported Tehran authorities' statements about their unwillingness to surrender.

The ceasefire between Iran and Israel represents a temporary pause rather than a permanent resolution and there are already reports from Iran of gunfire on a myriad of channels on social media. So, peace is good, even if temporary, so let us hope this round-up does not age like milk.