The latest global report from the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (IDEA) singles out El Salvador as the country in Latin America experiencing the fastest erosion of democratic standards, raising concerns about the long-term impact of security-driven policies on institutions.

According to AFP, IDEA’s regional director Marcela Ríos warned that El Salvador, governed by President Nayib Bukele under a prolonged state of emergency since 2022, has registered “a sharp decline in freedoms” and one of the most severe deteriorations of judicial independence worldwide. The government justifies the measure as a strategy to dismantle gangs, but it has enabled arrests without court orders and has led to what IDEA describes as the highest incarceration rate globally, with 85,000 prisoners in a population of six million. Reports cited by the organisation list cases of torture, deaths in custody, and forced disappearances.

Kevin Casas-Zamora, IDEA’s secretary general, has gone further, telling El País that El Salvador can now be described as a full-fledged dictatorship, given that “all institutions have been co-opted, there is no press freedom, and there are no checks on presidential power”. In chilling echoes of the situation in neighbouring Nicaragua, independent media, such as the investigative outlet El Faro, relocated to Costa Rica after facing sustained harassment. Casas-Zamora stressed that the supposed reduction in crime “is still difficult to measure, as government figures are unreliable”, and pointed out that the real cost of Bukele’s security model is authoritarian rule.

El Salvador's legislature last month approved constitutional reforms that will allow Bukele to seek indefinite re-election, drawing sharp condemnation from human rights organisations and opposition politicians.

The 44-year-old self-styled “world's coolest dictator" has enjoyed broad popular support since taking office in 2019, largely due to his successful crackdown on the country's violent street gangs. Bukele’s heavy-handed security policies have reduced violence to historic lows in what was once one of the most dangerous countries in the Western Hemisphere. As a result, "Over 1 per cent of the population and about 5 per cent of men aged between 18 and 35 are imprisoned," the report says.

Bukele won re-election in February 2024 with 85% of the vote, despite constitutional provisions that previously barred consecutive presidential terms. This was made possible after his party purged the Supreme Court in 2021 and installed loyalist judges who reinterpreted the constitution to allow his candidacy.

But El Salvador is not the only case of decline in the region. Nicaragua and Venezuela remain entrenched in authoritarianism, while Haiti has seen near-total institutional collapse, IDEA notes. Peru, meanwhile, joins El Salvador and Nicaragua in recording some of the steepest declines in freedom of expression.

More broadly, the IDEA report concludes that 54% of countries and territories worldwide have suffered democratic backsliding, the worst trend since data collection began in 1975. Electoral processes have registered their weakest results in three decades, with freedom of the press falling to historic lows. Over 40% of states now fall below acceptable standards of rule of law, and nearly a quarter have experienced a decline in freedom of expression.

While some Latin American states have shown progress – Honduras, Brazil, Chile, and the Dominican Republic are cited as recent improvers – the overall regional picture remains bleak. Casas-Zamora told EFE that Latin America exists in “a limbo of low-quality democracies”, plagued by weak rule of law, political fragmentation, and the penetration of organised crime. He warned that the failure of parties to channel citizen demands has fuelled support for “more authoritarian solutions”, particularly in countries where insecurity dominates political debate.

For IDEA, the convergence of institutional fragility, security crises, and structural inequalities risks locking parts of the region into cycles of democratic erosion. El Salvador’s trajectory stands out not only as an example of rapid deterioration but also as a template that some leaders may seek to replicate.