The US doesn't have the clout to even get countries as small as Hungary to cut their ties with China, says political commentator and bne IntelliNews columnist Arnaud Bertrand.

“Even Hungary, a small country of less than 10m people which government is extremely close to the Trump administration "rejects US pressure to reduce its Chinese economic ties", with its Economy Minister Marton Nagy saying: “we don’t see an investment potential from the US that would be on par with China,”,” Bertrand said in a comment posted on social media.

Budapest doesn’t see any potential large inbound investments from the US and Washington has yet to agree to a new tax treaty with Hungary, which the previous Joe Biden administration ended, Bloomberg reports.

“We don’t see an investment potential from the US that would be on par with China,” Nagy said. “We have a very pragmatic position.”

Nagy’s comment comes as the White House is striving to force its trading partners into a “them or us” decision over trade relations with the largest economy on earth. Earlier it was reported that part of the Trump administration’s “Liberation Day” tariff regime was designed to force long standing partners like the EU to break trade ties with China if they want to continue to trade tariff-free with the US. The policy seems to have backfired, as there has been a broad shift among several nationalist leaders who, despite ideological alignment with Trump, are choosing China as their preferred economic partner, simply due to the size of the market and the volumes of existing trade.

“The US just doesn't have the cards to get countries to cut ties with China,” said Bertrand, adding that the US can’t compensate those countries for the lost business should they curtail their Chinese trade.

Hungary has emerged as a key European hub for electric vehicle battery production and illustrates the challenge, said Bertrand. Chinese battery maker battery maker Contemporary Amperex Technology Co (CATL) is building its second European plant in Debrecen, reinforcing Hungary’s strategic role in the EV supply chain. “How could the US replace China in this role?” Bertrand asked. “It’s not even a credible player in EV batteries.”

Chinese EV powerhouse BYD is operating in Hungary and Budapest also agreed to deepen ties with Huawei Technologies Co. to develop a joint cloud services platform with Hungary’s defence and telecom firm 4iG Nyrt recently.

At the heart of the matter is a paradox Bertrand identifies: that leaders often seen as politically close to Trump—such as Hungary’s Viktor Orbán or Argentina’s Javier Milei—are deepening ties with China precisely because of its non-interventionist stance. “Many of the Trump-adjacent leaders who pursue change agendas at home counter-intuitively prefer China over the US as an economic partner,” Bertrand said. “China doesn’t interfere in internal affairs and they’re extremely predictable and stable.”

In contrast, the US—especially under Trump—has proven to be increasingly unpredictable and long-standing close ties have counted for little when it comes to the new Liberation Day tariffs.

“Trump, while being ideologically similar to Orbán and Milei, is not exactly the non-interfering and stable type,” Bertrand added. “His administration’s pressure on Hungary actually demonstrates this.”

Argentina’s President Javier Milei made the logic explicit in a recent interview with The Economist, saying of China: “They are fabulous. They don’t ask for anything in return. All they ask is that I don’t disturb them... They want to trade calmly.”

“All in all, that’s one of the big Trump ironies,” Bertrand concluded. “His 'America First' ideology is pushing his 'my country first' ideological brothers to make China their partner of choice.”

“They share Trump's anti-liberal vision of domestic transformation but conclude that China's hands-off approach actually gives them more freedom to pursue it than Trump's volatility would,” Bertrand said.