A surge in spending linked to artificial intelligence is expected to underpin earnings for South Korea’s major memory chipmakers next year, helped by strengthening demand for server-related components and a new refresh cycle across data-centre infrastructure.

Fitch Ratings forecasts that workloads associated with AI, which until now have been centred on high-bandwidth memory, will increasingly spill into mainstream DRAM and solid-state drive segments in 2026. This shift is being driven by the wider adoption of tiered memory architectures that allocate data between HBM, DRAM and SSDs according to access frequency. The approaching replacement of large volumes of general-purpose servers purchased during the pandemic is set to add further support the report says. Consumer electronics, however, continue to face subdued demand, with rising component costs likely to push retail device prices higher and limit any recovery.

Industry projections indicate a rapidly expanding market. Omdia estimated in late 2025 that global DRAM revenues could reach about $200bn by 2028, from a current range of $120bn–130bn, citing AI adoption, server upgrades and deeper reliance on multi-layered memory systems. Yet Fitch notes that the sector’s trajectory remains uncertain given the early stage of the AI investment cycle and the possible impact of tiered memory on the timing and volatility of demand.

Key risks are emerging alongside the growth opportunity. Heavy customer concentration in the HBM segment could weaken pricing power for suppliers over time. The increasing dependence of memory demand on AI-driven capital spending also heightens the sensitivity of earnings to any shift in investment pace. A slowdown in orders would threaten margins in an industry where high fixed costs make profitability acutely volume-dependent. Potential fallout from US trade policy remains another source of instability: higher tariffs on electronics or related imports could suppress consumer markets and indirectly curb chip demand.

Supply across the memory sector remains tight and is likely to keep prices firm into 2026, provided AI-related orders hold up. Current negotiations, however, point to further increases in average selling prices next year, supported by limited new capacity and strong enterprise demand. NAND pricing is expected to remain on an upward path at least through the second quarter as manufacturers focus on higher-margin enterprise SSDs rather than consumer lines.

South Korea’s two leading producers are positioned differently within this landscape. SK hynix, with substantial exposure to HBM, could see about 40% of its DRAM revenue tied to that segment in 2025. This concentration leaves it more vulnerable to fluctuations in global AI investment. The company overtook Samsung Electronics in DRAM revenue share in the second quarter of 2025, although increased competition reduced its lead by the third quarter, according to TrendForce data.

Samsung’s broader business mix provides a stronger buffer against swings in AI spending, but its own reliance on HBM will rise as shipments accelerate in late 2026. As a result, Fitch anticipates that HBM could make up roughly a fifth of Samsung’s semiconductor sales by 2027, with profitability increasingly shaped by the segment’s premium margins at both manufacturers.