With backing from China, Myanmar’s military junta has reclaimed control of the strategically vital town of Lashio in northern Shan State, tightening pressure on the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and its allies to cede additional territory captured during the sweeping Operation 1027 offensive launched last year, according to multiple sources close to the situation.

The military gains come as Senior General Min Aung Hlaing held his first-ever meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of a security summit in Moscow since seizing power in a 2021 coup. Against a backdrop of evolving political dynamics in neighbouring Bangladesh and intensifying geopolitical competition with the United States in Southeast Asia, Xi Jinping's rare meeting with Min Aung Hlaing at Moscow's Chinese-owned Soluxe Hotel signals Beijing's continued high-level engagement with Myanmar's beleaguered junta. The fact that this meeting took place in a conference room symbolically named "Beijing" adds to speculation that China may be adjusting its approach to Myanmar.

Chinese state media, including Xinhua, highlighted Jinping's renewed commitment to building what he called a “peaceful, prosperous and harmonious neighbourhood”, pledging deeper cooperation under China’s three global initiatives: the Global Development Initiative (GDI), the Global Security Initiative (GSI), and the Global Civilisation Initiative (GCI).

Xi Jinping made clear, however, that support would be contingent upon the junta’s ability to guarantee the security of Chinese citizens and business interests inside Myanmar. According to Xinhua, he stated that while China respects Myanmar's sovereignty, it anticipates tangible actions to safeguard Chinese citizens and investments. Analysts say Beijing’s public reaffirmation of ties with the junta, despite growing criticism over the conflict’s humanitarian toll, is aimed at safeguarding its infrastructure projects under the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC), especially those that traverse volatile ethnic regions like Shan and Kachin States.

The fall of Lashio, the largest city in northern Shan and a key military and logistics hub, follows weeks of intensified pressure by junta forces, reportedly aided by Chinese intelligence and behind-the-scenes diplomatic leverage. The TNLA, which led the 1027 alliance offensive with the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) and the Arakan Army (AA), is now facing mounting demands to withdraw from additional areas it seized in late 2023. China has allegedly leaned on the ethnic Kokang group MNDAA to relinquish its claim to Lashio, citing cross-border stability concerns.

Warning of the potential consequences of ceding Lashio under Chinese influence, ethnic leaders and pro-democracy observers emphasise that this could undermine the sensitive trust ethnic forces have established with the wider public in the wake of the anti-junta movement. The Moscow meeting also underscores a broader regional realignment. After the political transition in Bangladesh and warming ties between Dhaka and Washington, Beijing appears to be reasserting its footprint in Myanmar as a counterweight. The Chinese foreign minister’s recent visit to Naypyitaw, following the collapse of China-friendly leadership in Dhaka, is widely seen as part of that recalibration.

Jinping’s remarks in Moscow, emphasising high-quality cooperation on the Belt and Road Initiative and regional security, point to China’s desire to present its development model as a stabilising force in contrast to what it views as Western interference. For Min Aung Hlaing, who has remained diplomatically isolated since leading the 2021 coup, the meeting marks a rare moment of international legitimacy, albeit unofficial.

A Myanmar-based analyst described the meeting as "a diplomatic win for the junta", explaining that "after years of being snubbed, this photo op with Xi Jinping shows that Beijing still sees him as a necessary partner." However, the analyst noted that questions persist regarding the extent of China's support. The analyst concluded that with the military regime reclaiming territory under Chinese influence and ethnic alliances facing internal and external strains, the struggle for Myanmar's political and geopolitical future remains ongoing.