Poland’s population will fall by 6.6mn by 2060 compared with 2024, the country’s statistical office GUS said in a report on September 30. 

Last year’s decline in births already confirmed that Poland is in a demographic crisis, a situation last seen temporarily between 1997 and 2007. “The basis for such a conclusion is provided by trends in births, mortality, life expectancy, marriages, divorces and migration,” GUS said.

Births remain the key factor shaping population numbers, GUS also said. For stable demographic growth, there should be at least 210–215 births per 100 women aged 15–49 each year, compared with the current figure of approximately 110. 

Replacement of generations requires a fertility rate of 2.1, but Poland’s fertility rate dropped below that level in 1990 and has stayed under 1.5 since 1997. Persistently low rates below 1.5 bring irreversible changes in the age structure, GUS said.

While the fertility rate is expected to edge upward, the number of potential mothers will fall as today’s small children form the main cohort of women of childbearing age in the 2040s and 2050s. The report estimates births at about 225,000 in 2060.

“The projection shows that by 2060 Poland’s population will decline by 6.6mn people in relation to 2024. The main driver will be mortality, with deaths reaching nearly 490,000 in 2060, as the post-1980s baby boom cohort enters old age,” GUS said.

According to the study, those now in their twenties will begin reaching retirement age in 2060, while the median age will exceed 50.25 years. That would be around seven years higher than in 2024, meaning half of the population will be older than 50. 

In 2024, the median age already stood at over 43 years, more than seven years higher than in 2000. Between 2000 and 2024, the number of Poles past retirement age - which currently is 60 for women and 65 for men - grew by more than 3mn to 8.9mn, with their share of the population rising from under 15% to nearly 24%. 

“Observed demographic changes, seen both individually and socially, present complex challenges not only economically, but also psychologically, medically and socially,” GUS said.