Karol Nawrocki, a political newbie backed by the radical right-wing Law and Justice (PiS) party, has won Poland’s presidential election, official results showed on June 2.

Nawrocki won 50.89% of the vote, beating his centrist rival Rafał Trzaskowski, who won 49.11%. Turnout came in at 71.63%, which was high, but not high enough to secure Trzaskowski a victory.

The result is a major setback for Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s government, which will have to face a hostile president likely to veto key reforms. That is likely to deepen voter frustration – which contributed to Trzaskowski’s defeat.

To date, Tusk’s agenda has already been blocked by the outgoing PiS-aligned President Andrzej Duda. This is expected to continue after Nawrocki takes office in August. 

The Tusk-led coalition is well short of a majority to override presidential vetoes. That might contribute further to the Tusk government’s losing popular support. Working against Duda, the government has seen its support figures slide to just 32% in a cyclical survey by CBOS, a state polling institution. 

Nawrocki campaigned on a platform of making Poland “normal,” vowing to push back against closer ties with the EU, halt progress on LGBTQ+ rights and resist moves to liberalise abortion laws.

Nawrocki has also said he would curb the rights of Ukrainians in Poland and claimed Ukraine was taking advantage of Poland economically, using war as leverage.

His victory may also pave the way for PiS to return to power after the next general election in 2027. Party polls have already been showing that the incumbent coalition would lose a majority to PiS and the far-right Konfederacja party.

There have been no official statements from either candidate following the announcement of official results.

An exit poll, published just after polling stations closed on June 1, gave Trzaskowski a narrow lead of 0.6pp, an advantage that disappeared only two hours later after a late poll (combining exit poll data with some actual results) was out.

It was Nawrocki who had sensed a change was coming on the election night. “We are going to win tonight!” he told a crowd gathered at his election event.

The Trzaskowski camp had hoped that results from big cities, where liberals typically win by a huge margin, would tilt the final result back in its favour. The difference kept on narrowing – but not enough to change the outcome.