Moldova’s energy sector has undergone a remarkable transformation over the past four years, shifting from near-total dependence on Russian supplies to integration with European markets and investment in its growing renewable energy sector. Yet, the process is far from complete. The country continues to push for long-term energy security even as the upcoming general election pits the pro-EU ruling party against Russia-backed opposition, raising the spectre of political disruption.

October 2021 was a turning point in Moldova’s energy history. Russia’s Gazprom abruptly cut gas supplies, pushing the country “close to a tipping point”, according to Opportunity in Adversity, a book by Aura Sabadus of Independent Commodity Intelligence Services (ICIS), London, commissioned by the Energy Community. In an interview with bne IntelliNews, Sabadus argued the crisis laid bare Moldova’s long-standing reliance on Russian energy and highlighted the urgent need to align decisively with European standards, prompting the start of four years of radical change in the industry. 

Decades of dependence 

Moldova’s post-Soviet trajectory has been turbulent. Since gaining independence in 1991, the country endured a civil war with Russia-backed separatists in Transnistria, economic collapse, 21 successive governments, mounting debt, poverty and one of Europe’s steepest demographic declines. 

The country’s dependence on energy imported from Russia was a constant throughout this turmoil, and kept Moldova bound to Russia. As Sabadus writes in Opportunity in Adversity, Moldova inherited “a highly complicated electricity and gas transmission infrastructure that allowed Russia to retain a grip over its population and stoke political instability.” 

In comments to bne IntelliNews, an Energy Community spokesperson said Moldova “is no stranger to energy insecurity”, going back to the 1990s, when growing gas debts and blackouts left the country exposed to Moscow’s political leverage.

Early reforms, including partial privatisation, failed to deliver stability, while Russia has repeatedly blocked diversification efforts. Moldova’s accession to the Energy Community Treaty in 2010 laid the legal foundation for reform and opened the prospect of integration into EU energy markets, yet progress remained uneven and politically contested.

Gazprom wielded influence over Moldova not just through its ability to turn off the gas taps, but through Moldova’s debt to the Russian gas giant. 

By 2025, Moldovagaz’s cumulative debt to Gazprom exceeded $10bn, according to Opportunity in Adversity. Most of this sum stems from the Russian-backed separatist region of Transnistria, rather than Moldova’s Right Bank, the majority of the country controlled by Chisinau. 

Still, Gazprom claims the Right Bank owes $709mn, although independent audits dispute this. Reports by international consultants revealed that Gazprom leveraged inflated prices and penalties to extract payments — and political concessions — from the Right Bank while strategic assets were undervalued or diverted to settle Transnistria’s arrears.

“Gazprom has always used this historical debt to pressure Moldova into different concessions … it was a leitmotif they constantly came up with,” said Sabadus. Looking ahead, she warns there is still a risk that Russia will continue to blackmail Moldova with regard to the debt. 

Close to collapse 

This was the starting point when the gas crisis of October 2021 brought Moldova’s energy system close to collapse.  Gazprom cut gas flows just as winter demand peaked. With inexperienced officials in place, pipeline pressure dropped below safe levels. Fearing a collapse, Chisinau declared a state of emergency and appealed for EU assistance. With limited market experience and scarce funds, the country faced high European gas prices while scrambling to secure alternative supplies.

Explaining the severity of the crisis, Sabadus says officials warned the entire gas transmission system was on the verge of collapse due to the lack of pressure in the pipelines, and engineers had to be deployed along the transmission routes. 

”It was not just a theoretical crisis, it was a physical crisis really threatening the integrity of the transmission system,” she told bne IntelliNews. 

However, the Energy Community spokesperson said, “What could have been a breaking point instead became a launching pad for transformation … Gazprom itself effectively forced the break from Russia.”

The transformation started with support from Moldova’s Western partners, including the EU, country donors, the Energy Community and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). This enabled Moldova to leverage the crisis to pivot decisively toward EU integration. 

As detailed in Opportunity in Adversity, based on firsthand accounts from Moldovan and international stakeholders, in the following years Moldova forged ahead with the emergency diversification of gas supplies, the consolidation of Energocom, EU grid synchronisation via ENTSO-E, and the forging of stronger regional partnerships.

Brussels provided emergency funding, while technical experts helped capitalise Energocom, transforming it into a vehicle to secure gas from European markets. Emergency measures, including a €300mn EBRD revolving credit line and mandatory gas reserves, mitigated the impact on households and businesses. 

The Iași-Ungheni-Chișinău interconnector, commissioned in October 2021, provided a critical alternative to Russian gas.

“In just three years, and with steady international solidarity and political will at home, Moldova has achieved what once seemed impossible: a rapid and comprehensive reorientation of its energy system,” the Energy Community spokesperson said, citing diversification of electricity and gas supplies, rapid growth in renewables, and a significant reduction in reliance on Russian-controlled energy.

Crisis upon crisis 

But the struggle to end Moldova’s energy dependence on Russia wasn’t over. The last four years have seen repeated crises in Moldova’s energy sector, exacerbated by the fallout from the war in neighbouring Ukraine that led to globally high energy prices and the exodus of millions of refugees to countries in the region, including Moldova. 

“There was a succession of crises,” said Sabadus. “On top of the energy crises were a vast disinformation campaign launch by Russia, then the refugee crisis, which came at a time when Moldova didn’t have energy supplies … so it was really, really difficult.” Overall, dependence on Russia and Transnistria created a “multi-layered crisis”, forcing Chisinau to accelerate reforms.

Gazprom escalated pressure in 2022, threatening to cut supplies unless payments were made in advance — a previously unseen tactic. Opportunity in Adversity notes, “As it was losing ground, Russia’s Gazprom began to threaten Moldova every month with the interruption or limitation of natural gas supply if the country failed to pay in advance for gas imports.” This was unprecedented; “Although there had been delays in paying for deliveries in the past, Gazprom had never resorted to such behaviour.” By October, supply restrictions coincided with Ukraine halting electricity exports amid Russian missile attacks, creating a critical shortfall. Transnistria used this to suspend power to the Right Bank, citing insufficient gas.

Rather than giving in to Russian pressure, Moldova, through Energocom, turned to Romania to secure alternatives. Moldova’s resilience, Opportunity in Adversity observes, “sent the powerful message that it could not be blackmailed.” Meanwhile, by directing Russian gas to the Transnistria, Moldova ensured it would continue to receive electricity.

A positive side effect of the crises has been that Chisinau, again with its Western partners, has been promoting investment into renewable generation capacity and energy efficiency improvements. While this remains a work in progress, on August 23 the energy ministry announced that as of 12 noon the country’s entire energy consumption was covered by locally produced renewably energy. 

"In just four years, Moldova’s renewable capacity has grown by nearly 800% — an extraordinary boom that is still continuing,” commented the Energy Community spokesperson. “The country is firmly on track to meet its 2030 targets for renewable electricity. The next big challenge will be building a domestic biofuels market to cut reliance on imports. In parallel, energy efficiency is no longer a stopgap for Moldova — it’s a permanent, systemic priority.” 

Electricity market reforms 

Moldova joined the Energy Community back in 2010, pledging alignment with EU energy rules, but reforms were delayed for a decade. Russian resistance slowed progress, while domestic elites tolerated Moscow’s influence, weakening energy security and stalling critical measures such as gas unbundling. Corruption was another factor slowing down reforms. 

In 2022, however, Moldova followed Ukraine in disconnecting from the Russian and Belarusian grids, synchronising with the European continental power network under ENTSO-E. 

The countries had remained isolated for weeks during the initial stages of Russia’s invasion until the Isaccea–Vulcănești line linked Moldova to Romania on March 16. The switchover was a success. Experts noted that the required isolation test for ENTSO-E synchronisation is “exceptionally difficult”, yet Moldova and Ukraine maintained stable 50 Hz frequency under extreme conditions. 

The move allowed Moldova to implement an electricity balancing market, resume imports from Ukraine and secure EU grants to offset rising energy costs.

In 2023, Moldova unbundled gas and electricity transmission operations, a major step ending Gazprom’s control over its energy market.

Coupled with ENTSO-E synchronisation, these reforms reduced dependence on Transnistria’s MGRES and opened EU power markets. The Energy Community said the measures “removed structural obstacles… creating conditions for genuine integration and a competitive, secure energy future”.

In short, the 2021 crisis accelerated systemic change, overcoming decades of political instability, corruption, and social unrest that had previously hindered reform. Opportunity in Adversity argues that measures taken since 2021 — including market liberalisation, diversification of gas and electricity supplies, and strengthened institutions — have created the foundations for a resilient, European-oriented energy system capable of reducing dependence on Russian-controlled energy.

This has had important political implications as well, as Russia had long used its position as Moldova’s supplier of gas (and indirectly, electricity) to bind the small country into Moscow’s sphere of influence. 

“In just four years… the country is now more confident in its ability to determine policies and shape its future,” the book observes.

Cold winter 

Still, the tensions continued. At the beginning of 2025, Transnistria was plunged into crisis when Russian gas transit via Ukraine was cut off. This led to the virtual collapse of the region’s industries and hardship for its population as they faced electricity blackouts and a lack of heating during one of the coldest periods of the year — a situation that was exploited for Russian propaganda purposes. 

Ahead of the 2025-26 winter, Moldova is now actively reducing dependence on the separatist region. At the same time, the government has instructed Moldovagaz to store gas for Transnistria’s needs, a first since independence. 

“Transnistria is a small place but it’s a major source of risk,” said Sabadus, outlining how Russia cut gas supplies to Transnistria in January, then blamed the ensuing crisis on the Moldovan government. 

“Transnistria remains a vulnerability as long as there is no coherent long-term strategy,” she added. 

Crucial vote 

Before the winter, Moldovans will go to the polls to elect a new government. The general election scheduled for September 28 will pit President Maia Sandu’s ruling Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) against the pro-Russian Patriotic Bloc and a handful of smaller parties. Recent polls indicate a close race between the PAS and Patriotic Bloc, with some of those smaller parties potentially becoming kingmakers. 

Future Moldovan governments are committed by last autumn’s referendum to continuing to work towards EU accession. Yet it is unclear to what extent a pro-Russian government would continue the efforts to promote Moldova’s energy security and pursue further integration with Europe’s energy networks.

Energy remains a hot issue ahead of this month’s vote. Sabadus recalls high energy prices being a frequent topic of conversation and a cause of complaint during recent visits to Moldova. As she points out, the price increases for Moldovan consumers came in 2022, a time when electricity prices had soared across Europe. “It was clearly a problem that was acutely felt by the population in Moldova, but since then retail and wholesale prices have been decreasing and the EU has allocated hundreds of millions of euros to support end-consumer bills.” However, she added, energy prices remain “a raw issue acutely felt by everyone in Moldova”.  

The referendum and presidential election of 2024 were marred by accusations of Russian interference, with Moldovan officials accusing Moscow of spending tens of thousands of dollars to influence the results. As the election approaches, Russian disinformation, especially on energy topics, is expected around the upcoming vote as well. 

Further investments needed 

Despite the progress so far, there remains more to be done to ensure Moldova’s energy security, both this winter and in the longer term. 

With the winter approaching “Moldova is now racing against time to complete its interconnection projects with Romania and deploy its own production capacity that would ultimately remove its dependence on Transnistria and indirectly Russia,” says the book. 

“Notwithstanding all the achievements to date, the Moldovan gas and electricity markets remain imperfect, and the country still needs to continue reforms to open its gas and power sectors, couple up with  EU electricity markets and become a full ENTSO-E member. In hindsight, however, there are several undisputed gains.” 

Speaking to bne IntelliNews, Sabadus said the priority is the high-voltage Isaccea-Vulcanesti-Chisinau interconnector that will directly link Romania and Moldova. Two further high voltage lines should be online by the end of this decade, also connecting Romania to Moldova, which will increase capacity. 

Moldova’s rapid break from Russian energy is a dramatic example of how a geopolitical shock catalysed sweeping structural change. In barely four years the small country has moved from near-total dependence on Gazprom to a diversified, renewable-rich system tied to European networks — an achievement watched by other countries seeking to curb Moscow’s leverage. But lasting security will hinge on further steps including completing the interconnection projects with Romania, and investing into local renewables capacity.