First and foremost, energy security for India trumps any claims on sanctions the US throws at New Delhi, and Russia for now is a key crude supplier to the subcontinent.

 

What: India is set to post record levels of Russian crude imports in June.

Why: Out of options with the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed for months, India had to source cheap crude from somewhere. 

What next: Only time will tell. Will peace last between the US and Iran? Will oil and gas flows to India resume any time soon? Will prices compete with those offered by Russia?

 

India’s imports of Russian crude are set to reach an all-time high in June, highlighting Moscow’s growing role at the centre of New Delhi’s ever changing energy security strategy.

Preliminary vessel tracking data cited by The Indian Express indicates that Russian barrels now account for the majority of India’s total crude intake, even as the US recently allowed its sanctions waiver on Russian oil purchases to lapse.

The shift also reflects a broader realignment in India’s import quota since March, when disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz squeezed West Asian supply routes while at the same time increasing freight and insurance risks. In the months since, the resulting pressure on Gulf flows has pushed Indian refiners towards alternative suppliers, most notably Russia.

In June so far, India’s crude imports from Russia have reportedly averaged 2.6mn barrels per day (bpd) – a number roughly equivalent to 53.5% of total imports over the period, according to Kpler.

For the full month, Kpler expects imports to exceed 2.35mn bpd, which would, when confirmed, mark a new record. The previous monthly high stands at 2.2mn bpd, and was recorded in May 2023.

The Express adds that Indian industry participants expect the momentum to continue even after the expiry of the US sanctions waiver on Russian crude purchases. Much of this centres on the reality on the ground that while the waiver had provided a degree of extra flexibility for Indian refiners in handling sanctioned cargoes, analysts say underlying commercial incentives will remain intact. It is a common ‘go-to’ seen on the part of Indian government officials in recent years under which domestic interests are raised to counter any attempts at geopolitical pressure by the US or EU to abide by sanctions largely unrelated to India.

Kpler’s refining and modelling specialist Sumit Ritolia, in speaking to The Indian Express noted that imports have remained strong through June, in large part supported by Russian price competitiveness and sustained refinery appetite. He added that even without the waiver, flows were likely to remain robust, though not necessarily at record levels.

When the heightened instability around the Strait of Hormuz started to disrupt shipments from West Asia, roughly 40% of India’s crude imports were passing through the Strait, making the interference of supplies significant for refiners.

The impact, as viewed from India, has been particularly severe on Iraqi crude with Iraq being India’s second-largest source of crude in previous years. There have, however, been almost no shipments of Iraqi crude to India for nearly four months.

Broader imports from West Asia have also fallen sharply even if some resilience has been seen from producers with partial logistical alternatives. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have managed to maintain limited exports to Indian ports by using existing pipeline infrastructure that bypasses the Strait for at least part of their journey.

The broader decline in Gulf supply though has forced Indian refiners to diversify aggressively. North American and Venezuelan barrels have increased in volume in the import mix, though not at a scale sufficient to offset the loss of Gulf volumes - yet. As such, Russian crude has effectively filled the gap for New Delhi, becoming the backbone of India’s import slate.

As of June 24, despite the expiry of the US waiver and an initial US–Iran agreement aimed at easing regional tensions, market participants still do not expect a rapid reversal in trade flows. Infrastructure across West Asia affected by war damage needs repairing and the durability of the diplomatic progress remains uncertain.

As a result, analysts in cities across India and Asia are now talking about the difficulty of replacing large volumes quickly and the likelihood that Middle Eastern supply routes will take months if not years to stabilise. Then there is the structural shift in how Asian buyers now view Russian crude – a viewpoint that conflicts with many in the West.

The uncertainty around the US–Iran understanding of peace as is reported at present has also contributed to caution in the market. Traders across India and insurers around the world remain wary of renewed disruption, and confidence in shipping through key routes will take time to recover.

Added to this is the possibility that if or when the US sanctions waiver on Russian crude is reintroduced by The White House, Indian officials will, if need be, once again stand behind the concept that New Delhi does not require US authorisation to purchase Russian crude.

When in place, the waiver at least enabled Indian refiners to receive cargoes on vessels subject to sanctions and to engage more directly with Russian producers such as Rosneft and Lukoil without heightened exposure to secondary sanctions risk. In communicating with Moscow though, while on the one hand helping to ease diplomatic pressure between Washington and New Delhi over India’s energy imports, on the other the waiver allowed Indian buyers to build links to Russian sellers. And these links may prove all-important down the road.

India had already been a major buyer of Russian crude prior to the West Asian disruption, though volumes had fluctuated under the influence of earlier sanctions and bilateral negotiations with the US. So much so that Washington briefly at least, had at one point tied reductions in Russian oil purchases to broader trade discussions, including the removal of additional punitive tariffs.

In February 2026, just prior to the outbreak of war in Iran, Indian refiners imported just over 1mn bpd of Russian crude, roughly half of the peak level seen the year before when imports exceeded 2mn bpd. Even at the lower level, Russia remained India’s largest single supplier, accounting for about 20% of total imports.

Volumes shipped from Russia then rebounded sharply in March to around 2mn bpd, accounting for almost 45% of total imports, as West Asian supplies dried up and with the US waiver still in place. Imports then eased in April to 1.6mn bpd, mainly due to maintenance shutdowns at Nayara Energy, a major processor of Russian crude in Gujarat. By May, flows recovered again to 1.9mn bpd, according to Kpler.

The combination of disrupted Gulf supply, competitive Russian pricing, and flexible refining demand has therefore reshaped India’s crude sourcing profile. And, even as diplomatic conditions evolve and sanctions frameworks shift, Russian crude is now seen as ‘the’ central pillar of India’s import strategy.

To that end, regardless of efforts by the US or even the EU to pressure New Delhi to abide by wider sanctions on Moscow, Russian crude is set to remain a defining feature of India's energy mix in at least the near term.