Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan secured a decisive parliamentary election victory that strengthens his pro-European agenda, but an analysis published by Carnegie Politika says a resilient pro-Russian opposition could still slow his efforts to advance peace with Azerbaijan and deepen ties with the West.

Pashinyan’s Civil Contract party won 49.7% of the vote, with support peaking at around 60% in rural areas. The outcome gives him a governing majority but falls short of the constitutional threshold needed to push through more complex reforms, particularly those linked to a potential peace agreement with Baku.

The result came despite years of political turbulence following Armenia’s defeat in the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war and the subsequent exodus of ethnic Armenians from the disputed region. The election outcome has prompted questions over how Pashinyan retained support in the wake of those events, and why Russian influence operations failed to decisively shift the vote.

In the analysis, former Armenian MP Mikayel Zolyan noted what he described as an underlying shift in voter behaviour outside major cities. He wrote: “a pro-Pashinyan ‘silent majority’ has formed in regions that benefited from infrastructure projects after the 2018 Velvet Revolution and border villages grateful for the winding down of the armed conflict with Azerbaijan.”

Zolyan added that this bloc was motivated in part by resistance to the return of Armenia’s former ruling elites. “The silent majority was willing to do anything to prevent the pre-revolutionary ‘old guard’ and their pro-Russian networks from returning to power,” he wrote.

In contrast, support for pro-Russian parties was stronger in urban centres, where segments of the middle class remain deeply critical of Pashinyan’s handling of the Karabakh conflict and Armenia’s strategic setbacks. The opposition includes figures such as former president Robert Kocharyan and business-linked political actors like Samvel Karapetyan, who lead rival blocs that cleared parliamentary thresholds.

Carnegie Politika’s analysis suggests this geographic split reflects competing narratives over Armenia’s direction: integration with the European Union versus renewed alignment with Moscow.

Moscow’s influence remains a central factor in Armenian politics. According to the analysis, Russian economic pressure, including trade restrictions on Armenian goods, was intended to weaken Pashinyan’s support. However, the strategy appears to have had mixed results.

Zolyan wrote that “Armenian society cannot forgive Russia — its official Collective Security Treaty Organization ally — for abandoning Armenia just when it most needed its assistance during the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War with Azerbaijan in 2020.”

Despite this sentiment, pro-Russian parties still gained a significant parliamentary presence, drawing support from voters who blame Pashinyan for territorial losses and security deterioration.

The election outcome is also seen as reinforcing Armenia’s gradual shift toward Western institutions. The analysis highlights growing cooperation with the European Union and the United States, including economic support, security assistance and infrastructure-linked diplomacy aimed at reducing Armenia’s dependence on Russia.

Western engagement intensified ahead of the vote, with increased EU financial support and expanded political dialogue. The United States also signalled backing for Pashinyan’s reform agenda, while European institutions stepped up assistance for governance and resilience programmes.

Pashinyan’s government is pursuing a fragile peace process with Azerbaijan, but domestic opposition to concessions remains strong. Many Armenians remain sceptical of long-term normalisation with Baku and Ankara, a sentiment opposition groups have exploited in campaigning.

Despite the victory, Pashinyan’s position remains politically constrained. His majority allows him to govern without coalition partners, but not to unilaterally amend the constitution — an issue central to negotiations with Azerbaijan, which has linked any final peace treaty to constitutional changes in Armenia.

The Carnegie analysis concludes that while the pro-Russian opposition is unlikely to derail Armenia’s westward trajectory, it may be able to slow legislative progress and complicate diplomacy.

It also warns that Moscow could interpret the results as evidence of political fragility in Yerevan, potentially increasing hybrid pressure. Still, it suggests Russia must balance such actions against the risk of further alienating Armenia, where it retains key economic and military assets, including the Gyumri base and major infrastructure holdings.