Hungary’s industrial production volume rose by 1.5% in April compared to the previous month,  marking a second consecutive month of growth in the struggling sector and the highest monthly gain since mid-2022.

While the uptick offers some relief following prolonged stagnation, analysts caution that it is too early to speak of a trend reversal.

In annual terms, output fell 5% (chart) and by 2.3% when adjusted to working days, according to preliminary data by KSH, which noted that the Easter holidays had also impacted data.

Output in the first four months was down 4.5% year on year.

Hungary’s industrial sector has been in recession for three years, and its prospects remain clouded by sluggish demand in the eurozone and ongoing uncertainty around global trade tensions.

The country’s largest trading partner, Germany, had shown signs of an industrial rebound in Q1, with recent order data coming in strong and improving business confidence indicators, with the Ifo index hitting a 10-month high, which could eventually filter through to Hungary, analysts said. 

It remains to be seen how much of recent production may have been brought forward in anticipation of trade barriers, or to what extent uncertainty is already weighing on European output figures. Meanwhile, Hungary’s vehicle industry, the backbone of domestic manufacturing, has shown signs of softening exports even as Europe’s broader industry began to stir.

Economists highlighted that the monthly rebound was the first meaningful positive surprise in many months and could mark a turning point, but urged caution.

"We’ve seen similar one-off jumps before, only to return to contraction," said Daniel Molnar, lead analyst at the state-owned MGFU think-tank, adding that overall output remains over 5% below 2021 monthly averages.

The government expects mega-investments by firms like BMW, BYD and CATL to boost output in 2026 with new added production capacities coming online.

The detailed data will be released on June 13.