In a dramatic turn ahead of Bolivia’s 2025 general elections, former president Evo Morales has been officially excluded from the race, marking a critical moment in the country’s increasingly fraught political landscape. The decision, rooted in both procedural technicalities and deeper political fractures, underscores the volatile interplay between legal legitimacy and power in Bolivia.

The Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) confirmed on May 20 that Morales was not among the ten presidential candidates officially registered for the upcoming election. This followed failed attempts by the leftist firebrand to enter the race through an alliance with the Bolivian National Action Party (PAN-BOL), a party that lost its legal status earlier this year for not securing the minimum three per cent of votes in the 2020 elections.

Although Morales’ own political vehicle, Evo Pueblo, lacks formal recognition, he tried to use PAN-BOL as a proxy platform. However, the TSE rejected the late submission of his candidacy, citing the party’s disqualification and procedural violations. As reported by Prensa Latina, his running mate, former Minister of Culture Wilma Alanoca, denounced the move as a “blow to democracy,” accusing the TSE of orchestrating an exclusion through “illegal obstacles”.

This exclusion is far from isolated. Morales had earlier attempted a similar alliance with the Frente Para la Victoria (FPV), but that pact also collapsed. The electoral authority maintains that the registration process was strictly digital and accessible only to legally recognised parties, a system PAN-BOL no longer had access to by the time Morales’ team attempted to submit their documentation.

The former president’s political future is further complicated by unresolved accusations of sexual abuse involving minors, dating back over a decade. Despite multiple allegations, including statutory rape and human trafficking, Morales has never faced formal judicial proceedings. Critics argue this reflects the politicised nature of Bolivia’s justice system. Feminist voices within the country, including María Galindo, have long decried the institutional silencing of victims, suggesting Morales benefited from political shielding during his time in power.

Yet the exclusion of Morales has not quelled political tensions; it has only intensified them. Supporters from his stronghold in Chapare, a coca farming region, have threatened mass mobilisation, and Morales himself warned that protests could escalate if he is permanently blocked. Indeed, the week leading up to the deadline was marked by road blockades and violent street clashes, as his followers attempted to pressure electoral authorities.

The broader context reveals a fractured political field. Bolivian President Luis Arce, a former ally who succeeded Morales under the same MAS party banner, has long distanced himself from his predecessor amid personal and political rows, backing former interior minister Eduardo del Castillo as the MAS candidate. Bloomberg Linea reported that the split has left the left-wing vote divided between Del Castillo and Andrónico Rodríguez, another Morales protégé now leading the breakaway Alianza Popular. Meanwhile, centrist and conservative candidates like Samuel Doria Medina and Manfred Reyes Villa round out a crowded and ideologically diverse field.

The TSE is set to publish the final list of approved candidates on June 6. For now, Morales remains a potent, if polarising, figure, absent from the ballot but omnipresent in the political discourse. His legal woes, combined with Bolivia’s weakened institutions and spiralling financial woes, point to a deeper systemic issue: the struggle between democratic norms and entrenched power dynamics. Whether Morales’ exclusion will bring closure or further chaos remains to be seen, but the shadow he casts over the country's future is undeniable.