Prior to the late June 14 declaration by The White House that a deal had been agreed to bring an end to the three month long Iran war, oil markets were adjusting to an unexpected reality that saw China as the world’s largest crude importer consuming far less fuel than previously assumed.

Petrol sales at Sinopec, China’s largest refiner and fuel retailer, fell 8% year on year in April, while diesel sales were also down – by 6%, according to industry sources familiar with internal data cited by Reuters.

Fuel demand in China had already been weakening because of slower economic growth and the rapid adoption of electric vehicles (EV). However, the latest decline has been sharper than expected and has even surprised some industry participants.

Goldman Sachs estimates consumption of petrol and related products fell about 20% in April. Meanwhile, the Beijing-based GL Consulting puts the decline at roughly 15% the agency says.

The drop does not reflect reduced mobility though. Instead, Chinese consumers are increasingly opting for alternative forms of transport with Ministry of Transport data revealing that rail journeys rose about 10% year on year in March and April, compared with growth of around 5% in 2025. Shorter trips by way of city metro systems and taxis, many of which are electrified, has also expanded rapidly.

Added to this is the reality that China’s EV fleet, already the world’s largest, was used more intensively in April with charging volumes surging 69% from a year earlier to a record high, according to the China Charging Alliance.

On the surface at least, the figures suggest China can sustain economic activity with lower fuel consumption than previously believed, in the process reducing its need for imported crude as prior to the Iran war, roughly half of the country’s oil consumption was being refined into petrol and diesel.

Since the start of the war in February, China has limited its crude imports overall. This has been achieved in partly by using up domestic stockpiles put together when prices were lower. In turn this has led to an easing of pressure on global supplies despite disruption around the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, the effect on oil prices and markets has been minimal.

Figures also suggest that crude imports fell 29% in May to 7.8mn barrels per day (bpd), the lowest level in eight years, after a 20% decline in April.

According to reports, however, analysts caution that such low import levels by Beijing cannot be maintained indefinitely without further stockpile drawdowns. However, if changes in consumer behaviour do prove to be long lasting, this in turn could accelerate the decline in fuel demand while adding to the challenges faced by China’s refining industry.

One S&P Global analyst said demand for petrol and diesel had become far more responsive to market conditions because of the spread of electric vehicles and the growing role of electrified public transport.

Diesel demand has also been weakened by China’s prolonged property sector downturn as fuel traders report falling demand from construction, logistics, mining and industrial sectors. At the same time, many businesses have replaced diesel-powered vehicles with electric alternatives.