Colombia’s booming cocaine trade generated about $16.5bn in 2024, surpassing petroleum exports for the first time in more than a decade and accounting for roughly 4.4% of gross domestic product, according to a study by Eafit University’s Centre for Public Impact.

The research found that revenues linked to cocaine production and trafficking exceeded the approximately $15bn earned from oil exports last year and outpaced remittances of $11.8bn. The shift reflects both a sharp increase in cocaine output and a long-term decline in Colombia’s crude production and export earnings.

According to the study, cocaine production rose from fewer than 300 tonnes in 2013 to nearly 3,000 tonnes in 2024, while coca cultivation expanded from about 48,000 hectares to 253,000 hectares over the decade. Researchers said the growth in the illicit economy was driven primarily by higher volumes rather than price increases. Some 68% of the world's cocaine comes from the South American nation, fuelling all-powerful criminal gangs.

At the same time, official and international data cited by government officials point to more mixed trends. Colombian authorities have highlighted reductions in cultivation density in some traditional coca-growing regions, record cocaine seizures exceeding 836 tonnes during the administration of President Gustavo Petro, and programmes aimed at voluntary crop substitution. Government officials say roughly 30,000 hectares have been replaced with legal crops such as coffee and cacao through rural development initiatives.

The Eafit report estimated that cocaine revenues were more than double coal export earnings of $7.1bn, ahead of gold at $4.1bn, coffee at $3.4bn, flowers at $2.4bn and bananas at $1.2bn.

Petro has a controversial record of advocating for a permissive drug policy. During a televised cabinet meeting in February 2025, he claimed cocaine was only illegal "because it is made in Latin America, not because it is worse than whiskey," and suggested global legalisation would allow it to be "sold like wine." In other public remarks last December, the leftist leader said that drug consumption should not be treated as a crime, arguing that users are shaped by social and emotional factors rather than criminal intent.

In stark contrast, right-wing president-elect Abelardo de la Espriella, who takes office on August 7, has pledged a tougher anti-narcotics strategy, including stronger eradication efforts and closer security cooperation with the US. His administration will inherit a debate over whether enforcement, rural investment or a combination of both offers the most effective response to a trade that has become one of Colombia’s largest economic forces.