Brazil's conservative opposition faces mounting internal divisions and legal pressures as it gears up for the 2026 presidential contest, with São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas signalling retreat from national ambitions just as President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva projects vigour ahead of the looming campaign.

De Freitas, widely regarded as the leading contender to inherit former president Jair Bolsonaro's political legacy, met with the house-arrested ex-leader last week amid indications the governor will pursue state-level re-election rather than mounting a presidential bid, Valor reported.

The shift comes as de Freitas is under sustained criticism from multiple quarters. His image has deteriorated since the eruption of Brazil's trade dispute with the US, forcing him to reverse his initial support for tariff increases floated by President Donald Trump.

"The situation of being 'hit by both sides' has left him 'disheartened,'" a gubernatorial spokesperson stated, as quoted by Valor.

De Freitas confronts fresh attacks from leftist opponents following recent overtures towards Bolsonarism – including judiciary criticism and involvement in coup amnesty efforts – alongside hostility from fellow conservatives, particularly Congressman Eduardo Bolsonaro, the former president's son, who is living in the US and is actively lobbying for tariffs and sanctions.

Eduardo Bolsonaro openly opposes his father's potential backing for de Freitas, seeking to discredit the governor as part of the establishment "Centrão" political bloc. The former president, while never formally vetoing de Freitas, is reportedly considering alternative scenarios.

Conservative forces have suffered numerous setbacks recently, generating broader uncertainty about opposition leadership in the wake of the defeat of protective constitutional amendments, Trump's recent conciliatory gestures towards Lula, and the latter's improved presidential approval ratings. The developments have left centrist parties increasingly hesitant about electoral alignments.

Lula projects vitality amid sovereignty rhetoric

President Lula participated over the weekend in a march in Brasília honouring the Education Ministry's 95th anniversary, using the occasion to emphasise national sovereignty following Trump's recent overtures, Folha de S. Paulo reported.

The leftist leader, who is turning 80 next month, directly challenged Bolsonaro's aggressive political style, saying: "Our activity does not involve motorcycles, it involves walks with educators," Lula declared, referencing the predecessor's trademark motorcycle demonstrations.

Bolsonaro remains ineligible for office and faces 27 years of imprisonment connected to coup plotting.

"This is Brazil's path to educational sovereignty. It is through education that the country will be sovereign, so that 'no one will ever again have an opinion about Brazil," said Lula, as quoted by Folha de S. Paulo.

The president completed the three-kilometre route alongside ministers including Camilo Santana (Education), Gleisi Hoffmann (Institutional Relations), Alexandre Padilha (Health), Alexandre Silveira (Mines and Energy) and Fernando Haddad (Finance), plus Workers' Party president Edinho Silva.

Lula sported a Ministry of Education commemorative shirt, shorts and trainers, accelerating to sprint three times during the 36-minute exercise. His white cap bore the slogan "Brazil belongs to Brazilians" in blue lettering - a pointed reference to Trump's MAGA merchandise.

First lady Janja Lula da Silva accompanied him, offering water as the president's face reddened with exertion. Central Bank president Gabriel Galípolo and Caixa Econômica Federal head Carlos Vieira appeared at the conclusion.

The public fitness display reinforces a messaging Lula has maintained since his 2022 campaign despite his old age, promoting physical wellbeing, as well as regularly posting social media content showing outdoor activities at the Alvorada Palace, often observing animals, tending plants or harvesting fruit.

Lula has ramped up sovereignty rhetoric after Trump linked tariff increases on Brazilian products to Bolsonaro's legal proceedings in July, when the US characterised the Supreme Court accusations as a "witch hunt."

Last week, however, Trump hailed the "excellent chemistry" during a 39-second encounter with Lula at the UN General Assembly, despite their opposing international political positions.

Liberal Party fears judicial retaliation

Bolsonaro’s right-wing Liberal Party (PL), meanwhile, confronts internal tensions over potential Supreme Federal Court sanctions stemming from Eduardo Bolsonaro's relentless lobbying in the US for measures against Brazilian authorities, CNN Brasil reported.

PL members increasingly fear judicial punishment – including fines and restrictions – could impact party finances and 2026 electoral planning.

Concern has lingered since the congressman relocated to Washington last February, but intensified amid assessments that he shows minimal inclination toward moderating his stance. Eduardo persistently advocates increased US government sanctions against Brazilian officials.

Sources anticipate Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes may now impose party-level penalties. Last week, the Trump administration sanctioned Moraes's wife, marking the latest escalation in the long-running Bolsonaro saga.

Only a slew of PL representatives have publicly defended Eduardo Bolsonaro. A growing party faction believes opposition stems from self-interest in view of next year's election rather than principle.

The Attorney General's Office has recently indicted Eduardo Bolsonaro and right-wing journalist Paulo Figueiredo for seeking to leverage American authority networks to compel the Supreme Court to dismiss coup proceedings against Jair Bolsonaro.