Ukraine’s central bank has sharply revised up its forecast for the country’s current account deficit over the coming years, reflecting persistent external imbalances even as international financial support is expected to remain strong, reported Interfax.

The National Bank of Ukraine said in its April macroeconomic outlook that the current account deficit would reach $39.7bn in 2026, up by $2.5bn, or 6.7%, from its January projection.

The regulator also significantly worsened its outlook for subsequent years. It now expects the deficit to widen to $49.4bn in 2027, an increase of $7.8bn, or 18.8%, compared with earlier estimates, while the 2028 forecast was revised up by $6.4bn, or 22%, to $35.5bn.

Despite the deteriorating external balance projections, the central bank made only modest downward adjustments to its foreign exchange reserves outlook. Reserves are now seen at $64.8bn in 2026, slightly below the previous $65.0bn estimate. However, forecasts for later years were cut more notably, with reserves projected at $66.5bn in 2027 and $61.1bn in 2028.

The NBU said uncertainty over external financing had eased following the European Union’s approval of a €90bn support package for Ukraine. The programme is expected to begin disbursing funds in June.

Overall, Ukraine is projected to receive more than $53bn in international assistance in 2026, followed by around $42bn in 2027 and $22bn in 2028. The central bank said this level of support should be sufficient to cover key budget needs and maintain stability in the foreign exchange market.

Monetary policy is expected to remain tight. The NBU kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 15% at its April 30 meeting and signalled that it could stay at that level until the second quarter of 2027.