The paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) of Sudan have intensified their bombardment of the strategic city of El Obeid, targeting fuel stations, electricity infrastructure, markets and residential neighbourhoods in a campaign that is accelerating the humanitarian crisis and raising the risk of a prolonged siege, the Yale School of Public Health's Humanitarian Research Lab (HRL) warns.

The HRL uses commercial satellite imagery, geospatial analysis and open-source intelligence to monitor conflicts and document potential violations of international humanitarian law. Examining imagery collected between May 25 and June 25, the lab said in a report it has identified damage consistent with aerial bombardment at least eight fuel stations, the city's main electricity substation, the Grand Market and multiple civilian neighbourhoods.

HRL researchers concluded that the pattern of attacks was "consistent with intentional bombardment of civilian infrastructure necessary for the sustainment of life". Apart from satellite imagery, the findings are based on remote sensing and corroborated open-source reporting. Researchers said they could not independently verify every battlefield development.

"RSF's bombardment campaign is degrading both the city's critical civilian infrastructure and weakening SAF installations in El Obeid," the RSF Bombardment Accelerates Humanitarian Crisis in El Obeid, North Kordofan report said, pointing to a sharp deterioration in humanitarian conditions.

Satellite imagery showed more than 700 new temporary shelters had appeared in internally displaced persons (IDP) camps over the past month, indicating a significant influx of civilians fleeing fighting elsewhere in Sudan.

The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) have established at least 14 checkpoints and a 50-kilometre network of defensive berms and trenches around El Obeid, bracing for a sustained siege as RSF forces mass outside the city, the report said. The capture of the city would sever SAF resupply routes and compromise its ability to project power across western Sudan.

The HRL researchers said attacks on fuel infrastructure and electricity generation were disrupting water supplies, forcing the closure of some emergency medical facilities, including a kidney dialysis centre, and limiting civilians' ability to flee the city. Damage to fuel depots and electricity infrastructure has also disrupted water pumping, increasing the risk of waterborne diseases, including cholera.

Open-source reporting reviewed by the researchers suggests RSF forces have encircled El Obeid from the west, north and south, although HRL said it could not independently verify the group's precise force disposition or conclude that the city was at imminent risk of falling. It did confirm that the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) had constructed approximately 51km of defensive berms and trenches around the city, indicating preparations for a prolonged, multidirectional siege.

El Obeid, the capital of North Kordofan state, occupies a strategic position linking Khartoum with Darfur and the Kordofan regions. The city has an estimated population of more than 500,000 people, including around 105,000 internally displaced persons, while another 700,000 people live within a 30km radius.

The report said control of El Obeid would strengthen the RSF's position in central Sudan and threaten the Sudanese military's supply routes between Khartoum and western Sudan. It added that the fall of the city would sever the Sudanese Armed Forces' main land link to much of the Kordofan region and Darfur, while bringing the front line significantly closer to Khartoum and Omdurman for the first time since government forces regained control of the capital region in 2025.

"The humanitarian impact of any long-term siege on El Obeid will increase civilian mortality and morbidity, particularly amongst displaced persons," the report said. "There is strong potential for retribution killings by RSF against perceived SAF collaborators if the city falls."

The researchers also noted that El Obeid's Sheikan locality is already classified as IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) for food insecurity, warning that a prolonged siege could push parts of the displaced population closer to famine conditions.

They said they did not currently assess that conditions in El Obeid resembled those that preceded the mass killings in El Fasher in late 2025. However, they warned that continued attacks on civilian infrastructure, food supplies and water systems risk deepening an already severe humanitarian emergency as Sudan's civil war enters its fourth year.

Sudan's civil war began in April 2023 after a power struggle between the Sudanese Armed Forces, led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the RSF under Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti, escalated into open conflict. The war has displaced more than 14mn people and triggered what the United Nations describes as the world's largest humanitarian crisis, with famine declared in parts of Darfur and Kordofan and millions more facing acute food insecurity.

The conflict has increasingly drawn in regional and international actors. Egypt has backed the Sudanese military politically and provided support to the SAF, while the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has repeatedly been accused by the United Nations, independent investigators and several governments of supplying weapons to the RSF, allegations Abu Dhabi denies.

Iran has supplied armed drones to the SAF, helping government forces regain territory around Khartoum, while Russia, Turkey, Qatar and Saudi Arabia have all sought to protect strategic interests in Sudan through varying degrees of diplomatic, military or economic engagement. Multiple ceasefire initiatives led by the United States, Saudi Arabia and the African Union have failed to end the fighting.