Central Asia used to be thought of as sitting at the “navel of the world,” about as far away from everywhere as it was possible to be. Today that perception has changed as once again the region finds itself at the centre of things and a key link between east and west.

Uzbekistan is the most populous of the five so called Stans and is currently going through a dramatic transformation that started when Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev took over in 2016, throwing the country open to investment and reform. It is surrounded by fast-growing countries and has some of the best demographics in the world, while the rest of the world suffers from a growing demographic crisis.

"We're talking about four billion consumers, about 6 trillion dollars of economic activity," Acwa (formerly known as ACWA Power) general manager for Uzbekistan, Dr Jon Zaidi, said at a business briefing at the start to the Tashkent International Investment Forum (TIIF) on June 16. "Geography has already given Central Asia a seat in the middle of the dinner table. The challenge is to take a bigger share of all of them."

Investor interest rising

In a world increasingly marred by geopolitical tensions, trade disputes and open warfare, investor interest is rising and the government is hoping to close some $75bn worth of deals with the businessmen that flocked to this year’s TIIF.

The Minister for Investments, Trade and Industry Laziz Kudatov said over 3,400 investors, businessmen and politicians from over 120 countries had travelled to the Uzbek capital for the annual flagship event. This year’s theme is “Investment Sustainability: New Horizons and New Partnerships”. The occasion has a more hands-on approach than last year’s event with a dozen pitch sessions where local businesses and ventures can present concrete investment opportunities to the assembled international investment crowd.

Central Asia is back in focus in a way it has not been for a century as the general brouhaha has refocused business on the classic Silk Road overland East-West connection as traditional supply chains come under pressure and the international trade flows are remade in the new transactional world.

The Middle Corridor that connects Europe to Asia by land is in particular focus, as well as Central Asia’s copious supplies of critical minerals and rare earth metals and the president’s focus on promoting added-value investments in all sectors.

The region's natural wealth is another boon that is attracting attention. Central Asia holds 20% of global hydrocarbon reserves and 40% of global uranium reserves, alongside massive renewable energy potential — a combination that few regions on earth can match. "Most countries are still trying to find enough energy to meet their needs," Zaidi observed. "Central Asia's energy challenge is to create more value from the energy that it already has."

The human dividend

Zaidi was clear that natural resources alone do not build economies. "The greatest resource in Central Asia is not only the forecast, but its great youth," he said. "The economic miracles are ultimately built by young people. Factories do not develop themselves. Infrastructure does not create companies."

Acwa is one the biggest foreign investors in Uzbekistan, having committed some $15bn to 15 renewable energy projects, and Zaidi stressed that part of the company’s long-term strategy was to put something back by investing heavily into localising production as well as education to create new cadres of managers and engineers for the future.

“Young, educated, and ambitious Uzbeks can convert the resource endowments into sustained economic growth. Central Asia, with one of the youngest demographic profiles of any region in the world, has that raw material in abundance,” Zaidi reflected.

The only Stan which borders all of the others, Uzbekistan is uniquely positioned to serve as the growth engine for the broader region. "Every region needs a global platform," he argued. "Uzbekistan is uniquely positioned to play the role of the growth platform for Central Asia. The scale of its population and the advantage of its geography have really worked in its favour."

However, while geography and demographics are necessary, they are not sufficient to guarantee success. "What is nowhere more important is reform and governance. These are what make markets investable."

2030 development plan

Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev has big ambitions to tap into the country’s resources to deliver fast growth for his youthful population.

When Mirziyoyev declared his development strategy after his 2023 re-election win, the headline goal was to double GDP from $80bn to $160bn by 2030. That was considered ambitious at the time. It has since been overtaken by events.

Uzbekistan's economy surpassed $145bn in 2025 — with GDP growth of 7.7% — while exports rose 23% to $33.4bn and gold and foreign exchange reserves exceeded $60bn for the first time in the country's history.

The original $160bn goal set for 2030 is now expected to be achieved as early as 2026 — four years ahead of schedule. The government has raised its 2030 GDP target to $200bn, with a longer-term ambition at $240bn by the end of the decade.

Since he took over in 2016, Uzbekistan’s economy has grown by at least 6% every year, apart from a short pause in 2020 during the pandemic when growth stalled, but even then, Uzbekistan was one of only two countries in the world that did not go into recession.

The social transformation since Mirziyoyev took power in 2016 has been remarkable and the basis of the president’s popularity. GDP per capita has almost doubled to reach $3,220 in 2025, compared with $1,750 in 2017. In 2025 alone, private consumption rose 9.2% in real terms, driven by higher wages as a middle class starts to emerge, but with growth disproportionately benefitting lower-income households.

The national poverty rate has fallen from around 23% in the years before reform to 5.8% in 2025, lifting around 1.5mn people above the poverty line in that year alone. At the upper-middle-income poverty line, the rate fell from 36% in 2015 to 17% in 2022. Unemployment fell from 6.8% to 4.9% over the same reform period.

And the foreign investment is starting to arrive to tap into the rapid transformation. Foreign investment inflows were up to $39.7bn in 2025, or 31.9% of GDP. Over the past nine years, Uzbekistan has attracted around $120bn in foreign investment, compared with just $4.1bn in 2017 when the reform programme got under way.

The energy value chain

The core to all Mirziyoyev’s development strategy is to add value at every stage: cotton production was transformed in textiles; petrochemical facilities were built to convert the country’s limited gas production into plastics; and 200 universities have been founded to upskill the growing work force. Uzbekistan is moving up the value chain, a journey "from energy abundance to economic prosperity."

At the base of the pyramid, many of the Stans simply produce and sell commodity energy — oil, gas, kilowatt-hours of renewable electricity. "That is not enough," Zaidi said. "We need to find ways upward to create value."

The middle layer of infrastructure and grid investment has been reached now, firming up energy supply, making it reliable and tradeable, unlocking the next layer of value and creating a regionally integrated market in Central Asia.

But the ultimate prize lies at the top: full industrialisation, using cheap and abundant energy as the feedstock for manufacturing, processing and services. "The energy remains the same, but the value can increase by 10, 15, even a hundred times."

Acwa laid out a framework for 21st century economic development built around four critical networks that countries must invest in to compete: the network for multi-modal transport, the electricity grid, the transportation network, and the information and digital network. "The countries that invest in these networks prosper," Zaidi said.

Crucially, he argued that capital is not the constraint. "The world is not suffering from a shortage of capital. The capital is available and investors are interested. The constraint is usually confidence. Capital follows confidence. And the only thing that builds confidence is good policy. And good policy requires leadership in making the right decisions."

The speaker closed with a challenge directed squarely at the region's policymakers. "Many countries have resources. Many countries have people, even capital. Few regions have all three at the same time."

Central Asia, he argued, is one of those rare places. But the opportunity is not self-executing. "The next great economic success story will not be created by resources alone. It requires making the right decisions — decisions like connecting the region with the right infrastructure, decisions like competing as one energy market rather than five, and decisions to mobilise the investment environment."