Polish retail sales grew 3% year-on-year (y/y) in constant prices in May, picking up from a 1.3% y/y rise in April, the statistics office GUS said on June 22.

The May reading, albeit better than April's, fell short of the consensus, which expected a 3.7% y/y gain.

“After weaker sales growth in April, when some Easter spending shifted to the end of March because of the earlier holiday, May brought an improvement,” ING said in a note.

“However, sales grew less strongly than at the start of 2026. The prolonged conflict in the Middle East and slower growth in real labour income are limiting consumption growth,” ING also said.

The outlook for Polish consumption is mixed, as “consumers remain in good shape, but in the current environment of fairly high interest rates it will be difficult to escape the limits set by slowing real income growth,” according to Bank Pekao.

“Wage data released at the same time clearly show that income growth will be much weaker this year than in 2025. This means private consumption will contribute less to GDP growth, while the baton will be passed — as we have long expected — to investment,” Bank Pekao also said.

Six of eight main retail segments posted annual increases in May, compared to five in the preceding month, GUS data showed.

Fuel sales rose 9.9% y/y in May, after a 25.6% y/y increase the preceding month. Sales of furniture, audio and video equipment and household appliances rose 4.5% y/y in May versus April’s 1% y/y gain.

Sales of pharmaceuticals and cosmetics rose 9.3% y/y in May, picking up slightly from an expansion of 9.1% y/y the preceding month.

Sales of cars and car parts grew 2.1% y/y in May after expanding 0.8% y/y the preceding month.

Meanwhile, sales of textiles, clothing and footwear grew 3.8% y/y in May after falling 9.5% y/y the preceding month. Sales of food, beverages and tobacco fell 2.8% y/y in the fifth month after contracting 5.8% y/y in April.

In the press and books category, sales fell 0.6% y/y in May, after 5.9% y/y fall the preceding month. The broad “other” segment gained 10.8% y/y in May after growing 5.5% y/y in April.

On a monthly basis, retail sales in constant prices fell 1.7% m/m in May after April’s 0.8% m/m decrease.

In current prices, retail turnover rose 4.4% y/y in May, compared with a 2.8% y/y increase in April. Turnover also declined 2% m/m in current prices in May, compared with a 0.5% m/m decline the preceding month.

Seasonally adjusted data showed a 3.7% y/y increase in retail turnover in May, compared with a gain of 42.7% y/y in April, while in m/m terms adjusted turnover expanded 0.4% after declining 2.8% the preceding month, GUS said.

Retail sales and other May data do not alter the outlook for monetary policy much - because the changes for any more easing are gone in the context of the energy shock coming in the wake of the war in the Gulf.

The National Bank of Poland (NBP) administered six interest rate reductions last year and one in 2026, bringing the reference interest rate down to 3.75%.

“The incoming data set do not change our expectations for the outlook of the Polish economy or the path of interest rates. We maintain our scenario that, under current conditions, the most likely outcome is that the Monetary Policy Council will keep interest rates stable,” Bank Millennium said.