Karol Nawrocki and Rafał Trzaskowski are scrambling to win over voters who backed neither of them in the first round of Poland’s presidential election. The decisive second round will take place on June 1.

Running for the radical right-wing Law and Justice (PiS) party, the nationalist candidate Nawrocki now appears to have a clearer path to victory than his liberal rival.

While Trzaskowski finished first on May 18 with 31.4%, his lead over Nawrocki – who secured 29.5% – was narrow, and his expected advantage heading into the runoff has all but evaporated. 

Many voters who had previously backed the ruling coalition, which Trzaskowski is linked to as a top figure in the liberal Civic Coalition party led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk, appear to have stayed home or even switched to the far right.

The far right’s surge might now give Nawrocki a potentially decisive reservoir of support if he can mobilise voters, who are often young and seen as fickle.

“We are full of energy and optimism on the road to victory,” Nawrocki said on election night, after the results were announced. “I know how much energy I still have for the second round. I know how much more I can do.” 

Addressing Sławomir Mentzen, the far-right Confederation candidate who came in third, Nawrocki said: “Dr Mentzen, it’s time to save Poland now.”

Mentzen, who received 14.8%, is yet to formally endorse either candidate (if at all). His backers – along with those of former party colleague, the extremist Grzegorz Braun, who won a shocking 6.3% – are expected to lean toward Nawrocki. 

Combined, the far right increased its support by 2.3mn votes compared to the 2023 parliamentary election, becoming the key force shaping the second round.

Squaring the circle

By contrast, Warsaw Mayor Trzaskowski now faces a far more complicated task. He must simultaneously win back disillusioned coalition voters, shore up support on the left and appeal to the far right without alienating anyone. “Squaring the circle,” one newspaper called the choices ahead of the mayor.

Electoral data show that Trzaskowski received over 480,000 fewer votes than his Civic Coalition party did in the 2023 election.

The strategy of distancing Trzaskowski from Prime Minister Donald Tusk and the government – designed to highlight his independence and move the divisive PM out of focus somewhat – has attracted criticism. Analysts have suggested that the absence of a unified all-hands-on-deck campaign may have hurt Trzaskowski’s result in the first round. 

Ticking away

On the election night on May 18, Trzaskowski attempted to reach across the political spectrum. He pledged to implement housing reforms, improve education and mental healthcare access and finally deliver on a long-promised income tax exemption of PLN60,000 (€14,000 equivalent). “I will guarantee that the exemption will be implemented,” he said.

The big question hanging over mayor’s campaign is whether he has enough time to craft a message to mobilise his base and win over diverse voter groups, whose demographics is extra complicated along the lines of age, education, and place of residence.

For example, among voters aged 18-29, turnout reached 72.8% in the first round – the second-highest across all age groups – but Trzaskowski finished third with just 13%. Mentzen led this group with 34.8%, followed by leftist Adrian Zandberg at 18.7%.

“Young people went to the polls because they wanted to show their voices cannot be ignored,” Paweł Mrozek from Akcja Uczniowska, a student advocacy group, told the newspaper Rzeczpospolita. “Issues like education, mental health, first jobs, climate and housing were barely touched in this campaign.” 

Coalition allies also posted weak results. Parliament Speaker Szymon Hołownia secured just 5%, far below expectations. Magdalena Biejat of the Left received 4.2%. Both belong to the four-party ruling coalition led by Tusk, which has now lost 2.3mn votes compared to its parliamentary victory last October.

Hołownia was quick to endorse Trzaskowski, while Biejat urged him to offer credible policy commitments. “He needs to convince left-wing voters that he takes them seriously,” she said. “I’m happy to help him adjust his course in a way that includes the issues that matter to the left and to left-wing voters.”

Trzaskowski said he would open dialogue with anyone willing to speak and invited all democratic forces to join a march planned for the coming Sunday in Warsaw. “It’s not just about endorsements – we have to respect the voters themselves,” he said.

The final battle

Prime Minister Tusk also issued a call to action. “We are entering the final battle for Poland’s future,” he said in a video address posted on his social media. “There’s only one honest answer: Rafał Trzaskowski.”

Nawrocki is not sitting idly, either. Speaking in Bydgoszcz, he urged the right to unify behind him as “the candidate of Polish sovereignty and security,” and warned of “monopoly rule” if Trzaskowski wins. 

Nawrocki also hit some social justice notes in an attempt to feel the ground on the left, warning against Trzaskowski who would allegedly sign off on any attempts by the Tusk government to scrape or weaken Poland’s welfare programmes or increase the retirement age.

The PiS-backed candidate will also head a march in Warsaw – on the very same day as Trzaskowski.

An increasingly aggressive final stretch is ahead, pundits warn. “If the first round was dirty, the second will be very, very brutal. The bombs are armed. The fuses are lit,” political scientist Artur Reginia-Zacharski told Biznes Alert, a business news website.