Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has vowed to “do everything” in his power to prevent Ukraine from joining the European Union, he said in a social media post on June 3, escalating tensions over the bloc’s enlargement policy as Brussels tries to accelerate the embattled country’s membership.

Orban has been running an increasingly vigorous public campaign, criticising what he described as “the bureaucrats in Brussels” for pushing Ukraine’s accession in the midst of its ongoing war with Russia. “For Brussels, Ukrainian accession is a vital issue: political damage control and good business in the midst of a losing war,” he wrote on Facebook.

Tensions have further increased following an announcement by Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) in May that it had uncovered a Hungarian spy network operating in western Ukraine, while Budapest has also accused Kyiv of operating spies inside Hungary this year.

Hungary has repeatedly blocked the opening of accession negotiation clusters with Kyiv. But in the past, Orban has used Hungary’s de facto veto of any EU decision to wring concessions out of Brussels, most significantly an exemption on the EU’s ban on importing oil and gas.

But both sides are hardening their positions as the formal beginning of Ukraine’s EU accession process looms. EU foreign policy chief and former Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas said last month that the European Commission has a plan B to sidestep Budapest’s veto.

The essence of the plan is to start the process on all the items on the list that do not need a unanimous EU vote and to start work on those parts that do on a bi-lateral basis with the individual member states. While the latter has no legal authority, the hope is to increase pressure and isolate Hungary, as well as get the work done in anticipation of Orban’s eventual departure from office. Ukraine’s EU accession process is expected to last a decade and Orban faces a general election next year where his popularity is starting to wane.

In addition, the EU may strip Hungary of its voting rights under Article 7 of the foundation treaty that covers countries that drag their heels on implementing EU reforms. The EC is due to vote on the proposal later this month, but some fear the row  is putting enormous pressure on the EU that could lead to its break up.

Orban has argued that the EU cannot afford to admit Ukraine, a populous country with a powerful agricultural sector that would be entitled to €186bn of subsidies a year under current EU rules, according to the Financial Times. Moreover, as bne IntelliNews reported, Ukraine cannot join the EU unless the Common Agricultural Policy is reformed, as it would consume even more subsidies and countries like Hungary and Poland would go from being net beneficiaries to net contributors to the EU budget. Agricultural subsidies account for a third of all EU spending.

“Ukraine would suck up every euro, forint and zloty that we have spent so far on strengthening European families, European farmers and European industry,” Orban wrote on Facebook. “In 10 years, I would not be able to answer my conscience to myself, my grandchildren, or the country if I did not do everything now to protect Hungary and the European Union from the Brussels fever dream of Ukrainian accession.”

Orban’s objections are not without merit and have other EU members worried. While Poland has been a staunch supporter of Ukraine’s military struggle against Russia, it has joined other countries in Central Europe in supporting the re-introduction of import duties and quotes under the pre-war Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Areas (DCFTA) that will go into effect this week, and were suspended after the Russian invasion in 2022 as way of indirectly funding Ukraine via trade. Agricultural trade is a particularly sensitive topic for Poland after cheap Ukrainian grain wrecked the Polish grain market in 2023.

Ukraine has already started the transition process but still has a lot of work to do. Kyiv risks losing up to €2bn in European Union financial support after missing four EU chapter reform targets required under the Ukraine Facility programme in the first quarter of the year. Kyiv has 12 months to rectify the omission after which the money will be lost if the reports are not made.

The Hungarian government launched a non-binding national poll on Ukraine’s EU bid in early March. The initiative has faced criticism for low voter turnout and questions phrased in a manner that critics say are designed to produce a negative response toward Ukraine’s membership.

Ukraine formally applied to join the EU in 2022 and began accession negotiations in June 2024. EU leaders have set 2030 as a tentative target date for potential membership, although each phase of the process requires unanimous approval from all 27 member states.

Following the spy network revelations, Budapest suspended discussions with Kyiv on minority rights, an issue Hungary has long cited as a barrier to advancing accession talks.