Japan has made a historic shift away from its long-held pacifist stance under Article 9 of its constitution in recent years, embracing a proactive defence strategy that includes counterstrike capabilities and long-range missile systems.

As part of its National Security Strategy and Defence Buildup Program, Tokyo aims to acquire US Tomahawk cruise missiles, improve missile defence systems such as mobile radars on Okinawa, and bolster its naval presence with Aegis-equipped destroyers and new multi-purpose destroyers: all concepts widely reported and known both at home and overseas.

This fast-tracked modernization is evident in Japan’s record-setting defence budget. For fiscal year 2025, the Cabinet approved roughly JPY8.7 trillion (around $55bn), one element of its multi-trillion-yen plan to eventually elevate military spending toward 2% of GDP and become the world’s third-largest military spender, AP reported late in 2024.

Cutting-edge military technologies

Japan’s military expansion is not just about numbers though – and this is what the more aggressive players in the region such as China, are most conscious of - it’s about tech. The country is deploying F-35B stealth fighters operable from its Izumo-class helicopter-carriers and plans to field up to 42 F-35Bs and 105 F-35As, making it the largest F-35 operator outside the US, AP reported just a week ago.

These sea-based jets offer stealth and rapid strike capabilities beyond China’s current carrier-based aviation.

In addition, Japan is investing in unmanned systems, artificial intelligence, hypersonic missile research, electromagnetic detection, and space-based ISR technologies via its new research center under the Acquisition, Technology & Logistics Agency (ATLA).

Expanding partnerships, regional collaboration

Japan is also working to deepen its defence ties across the Indo-Pacific. Reciprocal Access Agreements (RAAs) have been established with the UK, Australia, and the Philippines with the UK-links now stretching back decades in both the air and naval force sectors. As part of this, joint exercises and troop deployment have become routing, while a next-gen fighter is in development with the UK and Italy.

Tokyo also works very closely with the US in multilateral settings, such as the Quad and annual trilateral exercises with South Korea and the US – all the time under China’s watchful gaze, but in the process reinforcing deterrence frameworks and real-time military coordination capabilities.

As such, while these moves amplify Japan’s role as a regional anchor, its modernisation ensures deterrence, reassures allies such as Taiwan, and delivers operational depth across the air, sea, cyber, and space domains.

China on edge

Japan's rapid technological leap in embracing stealth aircraft, maritime-launch F-35Bs, advanced missile defence, AI-enabled drones, and space-based surveillance, presents a strategic balance to the region. At the same time, this modernisation challenges China’s A2/AD (anti-access, area denial) strategy, complicating its coercive posture near Taiwan and in the East China Sea as was made evident in a piece in The National Interest in 2022 titled “China Is Furious About Japan’s Military Modernization Plans”.

Rising arms export influence

Post-World War II, Japan avoided arms exports. That has now changed dramatically. Earlier in the year, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries secured a $6.5bn deal to deliver Mogami-class frigates to Australia in what is Japan’s first full lethal arms export since the war, the Financial Times reports.

Japan is also revising export guidelines and has approved the transfer of next-generation fighters to various allies, including those aligned against the concept of Chinese expansionism, sources indicate.

This expanding export footprint helps to establish Tokyo as a growing arms supplier in the Indo-Pacific, and a significant counterweight to Chinese military sales to its own aligned states.

Beijing’s fears

Somewhat ironically, as a result of Japan working to increase its own arms exports, Chinese analysts warn that Japan’s rearmament could ignite a regional arms spiral. The state-owned China Daily somewhat predictably cited ‘experts’ expressing concern that Tokyo’s defence liberalisation, deepening US alignment, and burgeoning domestic defence revenues could trigger instability and undermine regional peace.

Other state-linked media such as China Military Online highlight Japan’s export growth, viewing it as straying from pacifist norms and encroaching on regional security through heightened military influence, all the time ignoring China’s efforts for regional military dominance.

As is, Tokyo has accelerated its defence build-up and heightened regional readiness for a reason – China’s own, albeit unstated, but blatant efforts to dominate north and southeast Asia militarily.

In doing so, Japan stands as an indispensable stabiliser in northeast Asian security architecture at least, and to some degree in the southeast of the continent. Through increased defence spending, investments in cutting-edge military technologies across multiple domains, and expanding alliances and export capabilities, Japan significantly contributes to regional deterrence and balance. It is not the destabilising factor Beijing claims Tokyo is becoming.