Iraq

US influence in the Gulf fades as Qatar, Oman strike deals with Tehran

Ben Aris in Berlin April 3, 2026

The US influence in the Gulf is fading as the war goes into its fifth week with no sign of ending and regional players are starting to cut deals with Tehran to end the attacks on their territories.

Saudi Sadara petrochemical giant closed down creating a new plastics chokepoint

Ben Aris in Berlin April 3, 2026

Sadara Chemical Company, the $20bn joint venture between Saudi Aramco (Tadawul: 2222) and Dow Chemical Company (DOW), has halted all production at its Jubail complex in eastern Saudi Arabia indefinitely without a shot being fired by Iran.

Iran president Pezeshkian issues public letter to US public condemning US aggression

Ben Aris in Berlin April 3, 2026

Iran’s president Masoud Pezeshkian has issued a public letter addressed to the American people, defending Tehran’s actions in the face of what he called, “US unprovoked aggression”.

MOSCOW BLOG: Pax Americana exposed as a paper tiger

Ben Aris in Berlin April 2, 2026

Superficially the war in Iran has dealt Ukraine a huge blow. The White House is now completely distracted, and the Trump administration seems to have abandoned, or at least paused, the ceasefire negotiations with Russia.

Cost of living shock deepens as energy crisis hits G7 spending – Oxford Economics

Ben Aris in Berlin April 2, 2026

A surge in energy prices following the escalation of the Iran conflict is intensifying the cost-of-living crisis across the G7, dragging consumer spending growth to its weakest level since 2022.

A long Iran war will lead to severe shortages, says Oxford Economics

Ben Aris in Berlin April 2, 2026

A sustained escalation of the US/Israel-Iran conflict could push global oil markets beyond a price shock into severe physical shortages, with rationing, supply chain disruption and recessionary pressures becoming increasingly likely.

$2bn World Bank loan to eliminate Bosporus bottleneck in China-Europe trade corridor breakthrough

bne IntelliNews April 1, 2026

INRAIL project also a boost for commerce aross Central Asia, Caucasus and Middle East.

Is Trump going to abandon the Iran war?

Ben Aris in Berlin April 1, 2026

Is US President Donald Trump the war in Iran? Having failed to meet any of his as yet unstated objectives trump is clearly frustrated and contemplating giving up on an unwinnable war.

American journalist Shelly Kittleson abducted in Baghdad by Shi’ite militia

bne IntelliNews April 1, 2026

American journalist Shelly Kittleson was abducted in Baghdad on March 31 by gunmen with suspected links to Iran-backed Kataib Hezbollah.

China and Pakistan issue five-point peace plan for Gulf and Middle East

bnm Gulf bureau March 31, 2026

China and Pakistan issued a five-point peace plan on March 31 calling for an immediate ceasefire and reopening of Hormuz, though the plan's omission of the US and Israel by name and questions over Beijing's credibility as a guarantor may limit its im

COMMENT: An Iran embargo won't send oil to $200

bne IntelliNews March 31, 2026

A chorus of analysts and traders have spent recent weeks warning that oil prices will spike. But market is foward-looking and has already priced in the worst case. $200 oil won't happen.

China emerges as Iran war safe haven

Ben Aris in Berlin March 31, 2026

China is emerging as a safe haven for investors seeking refuge from the Iran war storm.

IMF: How the war in the Middle East is affecting energy, trade, and finance

IMF Ben Aris in Berlin March 31, 2026

Energy prices, supply chains, and financial markets are the main transmission channels, but the regional effects will vary significantly. The world faces yet another shock.

US-Israel plan for Kurdish incursion into Iran collapses

Ben Aris in Berlin March 30, 2026

A joint plan by the US and Israel to support a Kurdish ground incursion into Iran has collapsed following leaks and regional opposition, according to The Times of India, which reported that the proposal had been under development for several years.

BEYOND THE BOSPORUS: Turkey builds house for PKK leader Ocalan on prison island Imrali

Akin Nazli in Belgrade March 30, 2026

Kurdish representatives tread carefully in referring to dwelling that is part of latest peace process.

Iran’s shadow fleet and shadow banks keeps the money pouring in

Ben Aris in Berlin March 30, 2026

Iran has doubled its oil exports since the start of Operation Epic Fury, sustaining flows of between 2.4mn and 2.8mn barrels per day (b/d), including 1.5mn to 1.8mn b/d of crude. It has also doubled the amount of money it’s earning.

Israel now occupies more of Lebanon than Russia does of Ukraine

Ben Aris in Berlin March 30, 2026

Israel has occupied more of Lebanon’s territory after three weeks of fighting than Russia controls of Ukraine after four years of war.

Global fertiliser market starting to feel the pinch as stockpiles run low

Ben Aris in Berlin March 30, 2026

Disruptions to the fertilisers market are starting to bite as stockpiles run low in Asia and beyond just as the spring planting season gets underway.

INTERVIEW: Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan

Mark Buckton in Taipei March 30, 2026

In the eyes of the government of Iran, the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI) is a terrorist organisation operating its own armed group as part of its push for self-determination for the Kurdish people of Iran.

Iran causes widespread destruction with a weekend of attacks

Ben Aris in Berlin March 29, 2026

Iran launched a barrage of missile strikes and drone attacks on US military and high value assets across the Gulf region over the weekend, scoring many successes, as the war goes into its fourth week.

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