Iraq

US-Europe relations strains bring Nato alliance close to breaking point

Ben Aris in Berlin April 8, 2026

The West is discussing a new defence alliance format to replace Nato that would include Ukraine. Nato's current form is ineffective, so it is worth creating a new defence structure.

Ukraine’s hope for a peace deal with Russia rekindled by Iran ceasefire

Ben Aris in Berlin April 8, 2026

Ukraine’s hopes for restarting peace talks with Russia have been rekindled after a two-week ceasefire deal in Iran was agreed on April 7.

Oman rules out transit fees in Strait of Hormuz despite ceasefire proposal

Ben Aris in Berlin April 8, 2026

Oman has said it will not impose the $2mn transit fees on vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz that were part of the two-week ceasefire deal agreed on April 7, reaffirming its adherence to longstanding international agreements.

Ceasefire: Iran, US agree to two-week Gulf War pause and 10-point plan

Ben Aris in Berlin April 8, 2026

In a last-minute deal, US President Donald Trump pulled the world back from the brink of a massive escalation in the Gulf War and announced he had agreed to a two week suspension of military operations against Iran after he agreed to a 10-point plan.

Iranian crude trades at a premium to Brent after US waives sanctions

Ben Aris in Berlin April 7, 2026

Iranian Light crude is trading at a $1 premium to the benchmark Brent price since the US waived a sanctions-ban on buying Iran crude already at sea to ease prices on the international market.

Russia shares Israel key power sector targeting intelligence for a possible Iranian Power Day retaliation

Ben Aris in Berlin April 7, 2026

With US President Donald Trump’s Power Day deadline looming, where he has promised to do “irreversible damage” to Iran's power grid, Russia has reportedly provided Iran with intelligence of the weaknesses of Israel’s power system.

Trump’s global disapproval reaches all-time high - Gallup

Ben Aris in Berlin April 7, 2026

A record 48% of adults worldwide now disapprove of the United States’ leadership, marking the highest level since tracking began, according to Gallup.

Iran and US-Israeli coalition trade tit-for-tat missiles strikes as Trump’s Power Plant Day deadline looms

Ben Aris in Berlin April 7, 2026

The clock is running down on US President Donald Trump’s “Power Day” deadline, where he has threatened to destroy Iran’s entire power sector, that could lead to major escalation in the Gulf war.

Tehran rejects Pakistan's two-phase peace plan, offers its own 10-point plan

Ben Aris in Berlin April 6, 2026

Tehran responds to Pakistan's two-phase peace plan Tehran has responded to Pakistan's two-phase peace plan which calls for 45 day ceasefire followed by negotiations to bring about a more lasting peace in the Iran conflict in a second phase.

Pakistan proposes a two-phase ceasefire deal to Iran war

Ben Aris in Berlin April 6, 2026

Pakistan is proposing a two-phase ceasefire to the escalating war in Iran ahead of US President Donald Trump’s deadline threatening to destroy the country's power sector that would lead to a massive escalation.

US pilot shot down in Iran rescued in prelude to possible ground invasion

Ben Aris in Berlin April 5, 2026

A dramatic game of cat and mouse played out in the mountains of Iran in the last few days following the Downing of an F15E Strike Eagle by an Iranian missile as US Special Forces searched for and eventually extracted one of its airmen.

Mission Impossible: Trump’s Iran campaign faces mounting setbacks as asymmetric tactics bite

Ben Aris in Berlin April 5, 2026

Iran's elite IRGC troops and mountain villagers joined forces in a manhunt for a down US pilot after Iran shot down a F-15 jet fighter over its territory. The US flew in special forces to try and find him.

This is "the worst oil crisis in history", says Goldman Sachs

Ben Aris in Berlin April 5, 2026

US investment bank Goldman Sachs says we are facing the “worst oil crisis in history” as a result of the shutdown of Gulf state hydrocarbon exports.

Rosatom warns of nuclear risk after reported strike near Iran's Bushehr plant

Ben Aris in Berlin April 5, 2026

Rosatom says a strike breached the protection circuit of Iran’s Bushehr nuclear power plant, warning the risk of a catastrophic nuclear incident is rising sharply as Russian personnel are evacuated from the site.

IRGC has denied any link to the reported attack on US Embassy in Riyadh

Ben Aris in Berlin April 4, 2026

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has denied involvement in an ആക്രമ on the US embassy in Riyadh, describing the incident as an Israeli “false-flag operation”.

US and Israel strike Iranian petrochemical hub, raising fears of supply shocks

Ben Aris in Berlin April 4, 2026

The US and Israel struck Iran’s major petrochemical complex on April 4, damaging multiple facilities in the southern Mahshahr region and raising concerns over global supply disruptions in plastics and fertilisers.

Three tankers exit Hormuz hugging Omani coast

Ben Aris in Berlin April 4, 2026

In what appears to be the first exit from the Persian Gulf by oil tankers without permission from Iran, three large vessels linked to Oman left the Strait of Hormuz by hugging the sultanate’s coastline, Bloomberg reported on April 3.

Iran war accelerates Chinese US treasure bill sell off

Ben Aris in Berlin April 4, 2026

The war in Iran has triggered a potential step change in the rate that China is selling off its US Treasury bill holdings. T-bill holdings are a good barometer for geopolitical tensions. China and the BRICS are dumping their T-bills.

Gulf Islamic sukuk bond spreads hit five-year highs amid Iran war uncertainty

Ben Aris in Berlin April 3, 2026

Yields on Gulf sovereign and corporate debt have surged to their widest spreads in five years as the war involving Iran drives a sharp reassessment of regional risk, according to Fitch Ratings.

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