Exit polls at Kazakhstan’s national referendum to approve a new constitution on March 15 showed that around 87% of voters vote ‘yes’.

Turnout for the Sunday vote was around 73%, the Central Election Commission said.

The constitutional overhaul now in store will streamline the structure of parliament and re-establish the position of vice president, an office that was abolished in 1996. Under the new framework, the president will have the authority to appoint the vice president, along with a number of other senior officials.

Ahead of the vote, the presidency came under fire for hurrying along the setting of a referendum process and vote and restricting consultation and freedom of expression over the proposals for the new constitution. There are also complaints that too much power will be concentrated in the presidency by the constitutional changes.

It is widely believed that the new document could allow 72-year-old President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev to stay in power beyond 2029 when his term officially ends by resetting term limits. Another popular interpretation of the changes is that Tokayev will be able to appoint a successor via the revived vice-presidential post and step down early. There has been some speculation that the ex-diplomat might have his eyes set on becoming secretary general of the United Nations.
Since gaining independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, Kazakhstan’s political system has remained tightly controlled by the authorities.

Both the previous and the newly adopted constitutions formally limit presidents to a single seven-year term, a rule introduced by Tokayev himself in 2022. After casting his vote in Astana, Tokayev addressed questions about the possibility that the constitutional changes might affect the transfer of power. He said that the next presidential election would take place in 2029, when his current term expires.

“Some experts suggest that competition for power in Kazakhstan is intensifying and that certain trends are raising concerns,” Tokayev was quoted as saying by Reuters, adding: “However, there are absolutely no grounds to believe this will have a negative impact on society.”

Opposition to the constitutional reform appeared limited, with Kazakh authorities cracking down on dissent in the weeks leading up to the referendum. Some journalists were detained on the day of the referendum, according to a report by Azattyq. 

First president of independent post-Soviet Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev, who led the country from 1991 to 2019, publicly supported the constitutional changes. In a message posted on his website, the 85-year-old said he had voted in favour of the new constitution.

Said Nazarabayev: “Time does not stand still. Generations change. Each generation must make its own contribution to strengthening the independence of Kazakhstan.

“I believe that my generation fulfilled its task by declaring independence, defining the borders, and building the capital [Astana]. Now it is necessary to continue strengthening Kazakhstan and raising its international standing. A great deal is being done for this purpose, including today’s referendum, which I support. At one time I made the choice in favour of Kassym-Jomart Tokayev [as my successor], and I remain committed to that choice for ever. I hope this Constitution will serve the good of our Kazakhstan and the good of our people.”

Once Tokayev’s political patron, Nazarbayev lost much of his remaining influence following the "Bloody January" 2022 unrest, when protests and violence across Kazakhstan left hundreds of people dead and triggered a major political reshuffle.