For the first time, China, the world’s biggest emitter of greenhouse gases (GHGs), has seen its CO2 emissions go into reverse and start falling, despite a rapid growth in demand for power.

The new analysis shows that China’s emissions were down 1.6% year on year in the first quarter of 2025 and by 1% in the latest 12 months.

China has emerged as the global green energy champion and heavy investment into renewables has seen clean energy renewable energy output over take that of its continued reliance on fossil fuels and coal resulting in the first reduction in annual CO2 emissions, according to a report by Carbon Brief.

The fall comes as surging electricity supply from wind, solar and nuclear power displaced coal-fired generation, reversing a historical trend in which emissions declined only during economic slowdowns. “Growth in clean power generation has now overtaken the current and long-term average growth in electricity demand,” the analysis noted, “pushing down fossil fuel use.”

Other key findings include:

Growth in clean power generation has now overtaken the current and long-term average growth in electricity demand, pushing down fossil fuel use.

Power-sector emissions fell 2% y/y in the 12 months to March 2025.

If this pattern is sustained, then it would herald a peak and sustained decline in China’s power-sector emissions.

The trade “war” initiated by US president Donald Trump has prompted renewed efforts to shift China’s economy towards domestic consumption, rather than exports.

A new pricing policy for renewables has caused a rush to install before it takes effect.

There is a growing gap that would need to be bridged if China is to meet the 2030 emissions targets it pledged under the Paris Agreement.

China rolled out a tidal wave of new legislation and action plans last year to bolster its drive to switch from fossil fuels to green energy, as early indicators suggest it has reached peak emissions six years early.

China has already hit its ambitious renewable energy goals only four years after setting targets and six years ahead of schedule, as bne IntelliNews reported. Although it remains the world’s biggest emitter of GHGs, it remains well within its carbon budget of allowable emissions under the terms of the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change, while the US has spent more than double the emissions allotted to it in the Paris Agreement carbon budget – and that was before US President Donald Trump withdraw from the accord earlier this year.

The findings, based on official data from the National Bureau of Statistics and commercial sources such as WIND Information, show that China’s power-sector emissions dropped 5.8% in the first quarter of 2025. While power demand grew 2.5%, thermal generation fell 4.7%. The expansion in renewables capacity, bolstered by a rush to install before new pricing policies take effect, played a central role.

“Electricity supply from new wind, solar and nuclear capacity was enough to cut coal-power output even as demand surged,” the report stated. “Power-sector emissions fell by more than total generation from fossil fuels, as the share of biomass and gas increased, while average coal power plant efficiency improved.”

In contrast, emissions outside the power sector rose 3.5%, driven largely by growth in the coal-to-chemicals industry and a temporary boost in metals production due to export demand ahead of US tariffs. Real-estate construction activity continued to decline, with new starts down 24% and property sales falling 3%.

Gas use in the power sector rose 6% as new gas-fired capacity came online, though average utilisation rates declined. Consumption of oil products showed only a slight increase, as electrification trends in transport and a shift to LNG in freight continued to dampen demand.

Although overall emissions have now been stable or falling since March 2024, they remain just 1% below the recent peak. The analysis cautioned that “any short-term jump could cause China’s CO2 emissions to rise to a new record.”

The current decline marks the first time that a fall in power-sector emissions has been led by clean energy growth rather than economic shocks, such as those seen in 2009, 2012, 2015 and 2022. “If this pattern is sustained,” the report concluded, “then it would herald a peak and sustained decline in China’s power-sector emissions.”

The outlook beyond 2025 hinges on targets set in the country’s upcoming 2026–2030 five-year plan and the tariff war with the US.

“The future path of China’s CO2 emissions hangs in the balance, depending on trends within each sector of its economy, as well as China’s response to Trump’s tariffs,” the report said.

Like most countries faced with Trump’s Liberation Day punitive tariff increases, China is forging new trade relations to dilute its dependence on the US and focusing on its own market as a source of growth.

“An anonymous comment piece in People’s Daily, the main Communist party affiliated newspaper, says the country should “strive to make consumption the main driving force and ballast stone of economic growth”, leveraging China’s large domestic market,” the report observed.

In 2024, China installed a record 357 GW of wind and solar power, significantly boosting its renewable capacity. The surge meant that China exceeded its target of 1,200 GW of combined wind and solar capacity by 2030, already hitting its self-imposed target in 2024.

China reportedly has now already reached and passed peak emissions and as it is such a big contributor to emissions, it could also mean that it may be that peak global emissions have also been passed in 2024, say scientists.

“Following the 1.6% decline in the first quarter of 2025, China’s emissions have now been stable or falling for more than a year, starting from the beginning of March 2024,” says the report. “Importantly, the growth in clean power generation in the first quarter of 2025 was not only larger than the rise in demand overall, it was also higher than the average increase in demand over the past 15 years, marked by the dashed line in the figure above.”

China is also rolling out an ambitious nuclear energy generation plan and is currently in the process of building some 40 new nuclear power plants (NPPs) that could see it overtake both the US and France in terms of nuclear power generating capacity. It even claims to have built the world’s first commercially viable fusion reactor.

The table below lists the 12-month periods with the highest emissions for each sector, as well as the reduction since the latest peak in each case.

“For all of the sectors other than cement production, it is too early to declare a definitive peak in emissions. Still, there are signs that other sectorial peaks could be past their peak, too,” Carbon Brief concluded.

Sector emissions peaks and reductions
Sector	Date of highest emissions	Reduction since peak
Cement	April 2021	-28.2%
Coal and gas: Power	November 2024	-1.7%
Coal-to-chemicals	March 2025	Still increasing
Coal: Other sectors	April 2021	-3.0%
Gas: Other sectors	December 2024	-0.8%
Oil products	April 2024	-1.0%
Total CO2	February 2024	-0.8%
Source: Carbon Brief