The presidential election runoff on May 18 is the most important political crossroads for Romania since the fall of communism in 1989. Voters face a choice between far-right Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) leader George Simion and independent Bucharest mayor Nicusor Dan. 

Romanians’ choice of president will also determine the shape of the next government. The senior ruling Social Democratic Party (PSD) quit the ruling coalition after the first round of the presidential election, and politicians are waiting for the outcome of the runoff before trying to put together a new majority. 

A win for Simion would lead to the rise of radical political entities that increasingly resemble the hard-right movement of the 1930s that led to the periods of fascist rule from 1937-40 and 1941-44.

Under a radically different scenario, if elected president Dan would will seek to stabilise the country politically and economically. This is likely to involve a thorough political reform of Romania’s mainstream parties, albeit complicated by tight economic constraints. 

Rise of the right 

Simion became the frontrunner in the 2025 presidential election after Calin Georgescu, the winner of the first round in the cancelled 2024 election, was barred from running. 

Simion thus owes a large part of his 41% score in the first round of the presidential ballot on May 4 to Georgescu, a ideologue who employs fascist rhetoric. He is backed by roughly half of the active electorate, which is disappointed by Romania’s corrupt political regimes. 

However, his advantage has gradually been diluted as the general public started to understand what the plans of Simion’s isolationist party are: muting democracy at home and turning Romania into a de facto ally of Russia. 

Simion’s rhetoric is double-sided: he insists he will be a pro-EU and pro-Nato leader, who is more directly aligned with Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni — a pro-Ukraine right-winger — than pro-Russian European leaders Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán or Slovakia’s Robert Fico, according to a profile published recently by Politico. But at home, he speaks against free media and political parties, warns of revenge against his opponents, and above all promises to appoint his mentor Georgescu as prime minister.

The prospect of Simion winning the election has rattled financial markets, pushing the country’s debt close to junk, and also officials in Brussels, who are reportedly already considering scenarios such as suspending the funds disbursed to Romania in case the rule of law deteriorates significantly as expected under a far-right regime.

Simion has a complicated relation with Georgescu, who is set to claim a prominent role in Romania’s future political scene. Georgescu advocates for deeper institutional reforms towards what increasingly seems to be a hard-right authoritarian regime with “the people” ruling the country rather than politicians. 

Still, this may be hard to achieve as AUR and other far-right parties have only 30% of the seats in parliament, although they may manage to collaborate with the Social Democratic Party (PSD). If elected president, Simion will also face financial constraints, given the pressing need for fiscal consolidation in Romania.

A moderate challenger 

His rival Dan only put himself forward as Romania’s potential next president after the failed election last December. 

Currently mayor of Romania’s capital city, he emerged as the de facto leader of the democratic opposition roughly a year ago when he won his second mandate at Bucharest City Call. 

With a career as a mathematician, he founded an NGO to protect Bucharest from uncontrolled urbanisation, which later turned into a political vehicle, Union Save Romania (USR). 

When the party opted to take a position on controversial gender issues in 2017, he opted to step down, arguing that this is not the role of a political party. As an independent candidate, he went on to be elected twice at Bucharest City Hall where he managed to get a majority formed with the mainstream parties of diverse political orientations.

If elected, Dan has several options for a ruling majority in parliament. However, all the mainstream political parties — the PSD, National Liberal Party (PNL) and reformist USR — are undergoing deep internal crises. Although not supposed to play a role in the country’s administration as president, Dan would also have to get involved in settling the financial challenges of deep budgetary imbalances.