As Europe slides into its third disaster season, 40% of the EU is already officially facing a drought before the hottest months of the year arrive. And this year’s droughts are likely to become even worse than the preceding disaster season's heatwaves, say scientists.

Europe is experiencing intensifying drought conditions following the continent’s warmest March on record and below-average rainfall across large areas, according to data released by the European Drought Observatory, Sky News reports.

As of the latest monitoring period from 11 to 20 May, 41.2% of Europe is classified as being in some stage of drought, with the most severe conditions reported in parts of south-eastern Spain, Cyprus, Greece and Albania. Poland and Ukraine are also seeing acute water shortages, the Observatory said.

Northern and eastern regions, including France, Germany, Poland and Ukraine, are facing expanding areas of dryness, raising concerns over the impact on agricultural production. The dry spring has prompted the UK’s Environment Agency to officially declare a drought in North West England last Thursday, May 28, following significant declines in river and reservoir levels.

With temperatures rising inexorably as the Climate Crisis accelerates faster than scientists predicted a countdown to disaster is underway as temperature rises have already passed the 1.5C goal set by the 2015 Paris Agreement and the maximum increase target of 2C will be passed in about 2037, according to all the leading climate models. After that point the impact on the world’s environment will become extremely destructive, say experts. Currently, the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) says temperature increases are on course to increase by 2.7C-3.1C as the best case scenario.

Greece is one of the hardest-hit European countries and is preparing for another severe wildfire season on top of facing droughts. “A particularly difficult” summer is expected, according to the government. A record 18,000 firefighters have already been deployed, and the observation drone fleet nearly doubled, in efforts to combat wildfires exacerbated by a warming climate.

Researchers at World Weather Attribution found that human-induced climate change is worsening droughts severity in regions such as the Mediterranean. The group determined that the 2022 drought that spread across the Northern Hemisphere was made “20 times more likely by climate change.”

The International Hydropower Association warned that shifting weather extremes – both drought and intense rainfall – are straining energy infrastructure. Power stations are being forced “to operate at the limits of their existing equipment,” the group said.

Economic losses are mounting as a result of prolonged dry spells. Insurance company Howden estimates that extreme weather events cost the European Union approximately €28.3bn annually in damage to crops and livestock.

Rising temperatures to change rainfall patterns

Nearly 2 billion people could face wild disruptions in water availability if the planet continues to warm – and the change could be irreversible, new research suggests, reports Live Science. The earth's average surface temperature is already about 1.2C  higher than pre-industrial levels and 2024 was the hottest year in documented history. The new study, published May 14 in the journal Earth's Future, looked at what would happen should global temperatures increase to 1.5 C – a point passed last year – even for just a few decades.

Changing rainfall patterns will be one of the main consequences that will have a dramatic impact on the ecosystem around the world.

A rise in global temperatures could lead to long-lasting changes in the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), a key driver of rainfall patterns across tropical regions, according to a study by the Center for International Climate Research in Norway.

The ITCZ is a band of cloud and rain near the equator where trade winds from the northern and southern hemispheres meet. The study found that global warming could cause the ITCZ to shift southwards, altering the length and intensity of wet and dry seasons in regions such as Europe, Africa, the Amazon and Southeast Asia.

“These impacts that we quantify here will be there for the long term,” said lead author Norman Steinert, senior climate researcher at the Center.

The researchers used eight Earth System Models to simulate two scenarios. One “idealised” scenario increased CO₂ levels by 1% annually for 140 years, followed by a symmetrical decrease. A second scenario involved emissions rising until 2040, then declining due to mitigation efforts.

In most simulations, the ITCZ remained stable. However, in one idealised and two realistic scenarios, the zone shifted significantly, raising the possibility of major changes to rainfall patterns. Central and West Africa and parts of Southeast Asia could see decreased rainfall, while northeast Brazil could experience heavier precipitation. The study found that 23% of the global population and more than 12% of the world’s land area could be affected.

Although the study classifies an ITCZ shift as “unlikely,” the researchers note that a weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and ocean response delays could make such a shift more probable than models suggest. The AMOC is already showing signs of weakening due to climate change and some scientists warn it could collapse in the next 25-50 years, which would usher in a new ice age in Europe.