Fitch Ratings has warned that emerging markets in Asia could face rising cost pressures across agribusiness sectors and food supply chains if a prolonged US-Iran conflict continues to disrupt fertiliser supplies further into the planting season.
The European Union has already, for all intents and purposes broken away from the US. It is only a matter of time before the Quad either ceases to function or decides to go its own way, without the US.
Beijing and Hanoi are stepping up co-operation centred on internal security, in the process offering a preview of how China may deepen ties across south-east Asia despite longstanding differences with several countries in the region.
According to an outlook forecast report by the Asian Development Bank, the broad Asia region including its many developing high growth economies are facing what can be best described as the most complex set of headwinds in years.
The war in Iran has delivered a systemic shock to global energy markets, but few regions have felt the strain as acutely, or quite as quickly, as Southeast Asia.
The last three years were the hottest ever recorded and it’s only going to get worse – to the point where people will start to die from overheating. Unless you have an air conditioner.
The world needs a stable Asia – East and West – and would be better served by the removal of the current Iranian regime. Only in the removal of said regime will Beijing be forced back into a more constrained, less opportunistic global role.
Disruptions to the fertilisers market are starting to bite as stockpiles run low in Asia and beyond just as the spring planting season gets underway.
Three quarters of the world's population live in fossil importing countries and bleed out at least 3% of GDP every year to import oil to run their cars and power plants.
Natural gas prices have already doubled since the start of the war in the Middle East and are expected to rise higher as the last of Qatar’s LNG exports arrive at their destinations. Now everyone is switching to coal.
From South Korea to Indonesia to Bangladesh, governments are increasingly turning back to coal-fired power generation to help offset a widening shortfall in LNG imports.
The war involving the United States, Israel and Iran has sent a delayed shockwave through global energy markets and nowhere is the impact more acute than at petrol pumps across Asia.
China is also increasing its purchases from Russia, with imports estimated at 1.2mn to 1.5mn tonnes – primarily for use as a substitute feedstock in refineries.
Sri Lanka has designated every Wednesday a public holiday to conserve fuel as the country confronts the risk of supply shortages.