Ukraine will only get one more tranche from its $5bn stand-by agreement (SBA) programme from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) this year, according to a Bloomberg economist poll, the newswire reported on March 18.

The programme has been suspended due to back-tracking on reforms by the Zelenskiy administration and uncertainties over questions such as the independence of the central bank and the role of the oligarchs in the economy.

Ukraine received the first $2.1bn tranche last June and had been due to get another $700mn last autumn which never arrived. The remainder was due to be paid out this year in two tranches before the 18-month programme expires towards the end of this year.

The majority of economists polled by Bloomberg believe that the government may receive the $700mn tranche sometime this year, but do not believe the remaining $2.2bn will be paid out.

The government faces a heavy debt service schedule this year of some $16bn in debt that must be repaid, including a spike of $11bn that comes due in September. Economists say that Ukraine will struggle to meeting its obligations without help from the IMF.

Moreover, if the government attempts to source money to pay off its redemptions from the international capital markets without an IMF programme, that could drive up the cost of funds significantly. Furthermore, funding from other international donors, including the World Bank and the EU, is contingent on a working IMF programme.

The majority of analysts surveyed said that Ukraine will receive the $700mn tranche sometime this year, but that would be the last tranche. Six of 11 economists polled by Bloomberg said no more tranches at all would be cleared this year.

Zelenskiy has said he’s confident of receiving more IMF aid this year, but he has also talked of a “plan B, plan C” if co-operation doesn't resume, presumably involving tapping both the international and domestic debt markets where international investors are increasingly active.

With international reserves at circa $29bn, or 4.8 months of import cover, analysts say the pressure is off the government for the moment and traditionally it becomes less interested in co-operating with the IMF when things are going well.

“As has been the case for years, Ukraine implements necessary reforms only as long as external financing is required to avoid financial collapse,” said Mark McNamee, director for Europe at market intelligence and advisory firm FrontierView, as cited by Bloomberg.