Russia’s government is banking on the much needed fiscal boost from the windfall of the war in Iran,  according to Reuters citing sources familiar with the discussions.

As followed by bne IntelliNews, 2026 started with the cash-strapped government preparing to revise the so-called budget rule regulating the cut-off oil price for federal spending, as well as reportedly consolidating the budget by 10%.

The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) also warned that further easing of the key interest rate, much needed for the slowing economy, is conditioned by sound state finances.

But Russia could now earn as much as $252bn in windfall export revenues from escalating conflict in the Middle East.

Now the government is reportedly postponing plans to revisit the so-called “budget rule” amid a surge in energy revenues, with oil and gas budget proceeds expected to rise by 70% month-on-month (m/m) to RUB0.9 trillion ($9.8bn) in April, according to Reuters.

International oil prices reportedly rose from around $70 per barrel before the Iran conflict to above $100, boosting Russia’s export revenues. Under the budget rule, excess revenues above the current $59 cut off price are channelled into the National Welfare Fund (NWF), which remains a key buffer for the budget and the foreign exchange market.

Sources cited by Reuters said the change is now likely delayed, potentially until 2027, while the current budget rule threshold is expected to remain unchanged through 2025.

Reuters reminds that President Vladimir Putin most recently called for a “balanced decision” on the use of additional oil revenues, while Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said the government continues to assess measures to reduce budget vulnerability to oil price volatility. 

The CBR Governor Elvira Nabiullina most recently stated it is too early to assess the full macroeconomic impact of higher oil prices, while reiterating the importance of the “budget rule” as a key stabilisation mechanism.

Additional commentary cited by The Bell suggests that a prolonged conflict in the Middle East with sustained elevated oil prices on Urals blend at $85 per barrel could potentially generate an extra $2.8bn of revenues per month, or nearly $17bn over six months, equivalent to around 0.7% of GDP. 

However, a pause in foreign currency sales from the National Wealth Fund during discussions on the fiscal rule already led to a 6% depreciation of the ruble against the dollar in March, highlighting the sensitivity of the exchange rate to these policy adjustments.