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Is Trump going to abandon the Iran war?

Ben Aris in Berlin April 1, 2026

Is US President Donald Trump the war in Iran? Having failed to meet any of his as yet unstated objectives trump is clearly frustrated and contemplating giving up on an unwinnable war.

Iranian cruise missile strikes oil tanker in Qatari waters

bnm Gulf bureau April 1, 2026

An Iranian cruise missile struck an oil tanker leased to Qatar Energy in Qatari waters on April 1 after two others were intercepted, escalating Tehran's targeting of Gulf energy assets as the war enters its second month.

China and Pakistan issue five-point peace plan for Gulf and Middle East

bnm Gulf bureau March 31, 2026

China and Pakistan issued a five-point peace plan on March 31 calling for an immediate ceasefire and reopening of Hormuz, though the plan's omission of the US and Israel by name and questions over Beijing's credibility as a guarantor may limit its im

COMMENT: An Iran embargo won't send oil to $200

bne IntelliNews March 31, 2026

A chorus of analysts and traders have spent recent weeks warning that oil prices will spike. But market is foward-looking and has already priced in the worst case. $200 oil won't happen.

China emerges as Iran war safe haven

Ben Aris in Berlin March 31, 2026

China is emerging as a safe haven for investors seeking refuge from the Iran war storm.

IMF: How the war in the Middle East is affecting energy, trade, and finance

IMF Ben Aris in Berlin March 31, 2026

Energy prices, supply chains, and financial markets are the main transmission channels, but the regional effects will vary significantly. The world faces yet another shock.

US-Israel plan for Kurdish incursion into Iran collapses

Ben Aris in Berlin March 30, 2026

A joint plan by the US and Israel to support a Kurdish ground incursion into Iran has collapsed following leaks and regional opposition, according to The Times of India, which reported that the proposal had been under development for several years.

Iran’s shadow fleet and shadow banks keeps the money pouring in

Ben Aris in Berlin March 30, 2026

Iran has doubled its oil exports since the start of Operation Epic Fury, sustaining flows of between 2.4mn and 2.8mn barrels per day (b/d), including 1.5mn to 1.8mn b/d of crude. It has also doubled the amount of money it’s earning.

Israel now occupies more of Lebanon than Russia does of Ukraine

Ben Aris in Berlin March 30, 2026

Israel has occupied more of Lebanon’s territory after three weeks of fighting than Russia controls of Ukraine after four years of war.

Global fertiliser market starting to feel the pinch as stockpiles run low

Ben Aris in Berlin March 30, 2026

Disruptions to the fertilisers market are starting to bite as stockpiles run low in Asia and beyond just as the spring planting season gets underway.

Iran causes widespread destruction with a weekend of attacks

Ben Aris in Berlin March 29, 2026

Iran launched a barrage of missile strikes and drone attacks on US military and high value assets across the Gulf region over the weekend, scoring many successes, as the war goes into its fourth week.

Iranian strikes on Gulf aluminium plants raise supply concerns

Ben Aris in Berlin March 29, 2026

Two major aluminium production facilities in the Middle East were hit by Iranian strikes on March 28, raising concerns over global supply as disruption in the region intensifies.

Satellite imagery confirms extensive damage at Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG plant

Ben Aris in Berlin March 29, 2026

Satellite imagery indicates significant damage at Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG plant that was hit by Iranian missiles on March 18, including the apparent collapse of primary heat exchangers at Train 6 and structural damage to adjacent facilities.

Pashtun leaders express support for Iran at Pakistan meeting

Ben Aris in Berlin March 29, 2026

Pashtun tribal leaders in Pakistan voiced support for Iran during a gathering at the Iranian consulate in Peshawar, signalling the potential for broader regional unrest.

Turkey and Middle East states working to protect US-Iran talks from sabotage

bnm Gulf bureau March 29, 2026

Turkey and regional states are preparing measures to protect US-Iran talks from sabotage, a Turkish diplomatic source says, as both sides trade accusations of bad faith over the negotiating process.

Ukraine and Qatar sign defence cooperation agreement

Ben Aris in Berlin March 29, 2026

Ukraine and Qatar have signed a defence cooperation agreement covering joint projects, technology development and investment in missile and drone defence, according to a statement released during a Ukrainian delegation’s visit to Doha.

Yemen’s Houthis enter the Gulf war on Iran's side

Ben Aris in Berlin March 28, 2026

Yemeni Houthis officially entered the war on March 28 and announced its first operation, firing a ballistic missile against "Israeli military targets."

Israel hits Iran’s biggest steel plants, Tehran to retaliate

Ben Aris in Berlin March 28, 2026

Three co-ordinated Israeli strikes hit all of Iran’s largest steel plants simultaneously on March 28. Iran issued evacuation orders for six of the largest steel plants in neighbouring Gulf countries as well as Israel as it prepared to retaliate.

Iran oil revenues surge as exports rise despite regional tensions

bne IntelliNews March 28, 2026

Iran’s oil revenues have climbed sharply in March, rising by an estimated $25mn per day from the previous month to reach $139mn per day, as exports increase and price discounts narrow despite tensions in the Middle East, says Goldman Sachs.

Russian businesses in Middle East slow activity as conflict disrupts deals

Ben Aris in Berlin March 28, 2026

There are 14,000 Russian companies registered in the UAE, and 150,000 Russians live there. Without the need for visas and the can-do attitude to business, Dubai has become a favourite destination for Russian entrepreneurs escaping from sanctions.

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