Voting is underway in Poland and Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski is poised to advance to the second round of Poland’s presidential election, according to multiple opinion polls ahead of the first-round vote on May 18. 

The liberal mayor is holding a lead over Karol Nawrocki, the candidate backed by the right-wing Law and Justice (PiS) party.

The election marks a pivotal moment for Poland’s centrist coalition government led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk, which has been unable to advance major legislative initiatives due to the veto power of outgoing President Andrzej Duda, a PiS ally. 

Without a three-fifths parliamentary majority, the ruling coalition of four parties – Tusk’s liberal Civic Coalition, the conservative-leaning alliance of Polish People’s Party and Polska 2050, and the Left – has been blocked from implementing key elements of its programme.

Trzaskowski is widely expected to face Nawrocki in a run-off on June 1, unless one candidate secures more than 50% support in the first round – a scenario that polls have ruled out. 

In the run-up to the vote this Sunday, numerous surveys have shown the liberal candidate ahead by 6pp-10p. But with some 25% voters saying their choice on Sunday is not firm yet, there is room for major shifts.

Amid heightened regional tensions following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and uncertainty over future American military commitments, both Trzaskowski and Nawrocki have emphasised defence and security issues in their campaigns, while attacking each other for lax migration policy and the armed forces’ ill-preparedness for conflict.

The left and the far-right

Elsewhere, Trzaskowski, whose campaign seeks to distance him from entrenched party divides, faces a balancing act as he attempts to avoid alienating voters on the left while not losing the far-righters, either. 

The mayor’s position has become complicated after strong campaigning from left-wing contenders Magdalena Biejat and Adrian Zandberg has drawn 10-12% support – nearly three times as much as at the onset of the campaign – with pledges on housing, fair taxation, labour rights and gender equality.

Although Trzaskowski appears best placed to win broader backing in a second round, his overtures to the far right – such as on migration or against expanding LGBT rights to include adoption – risk dampening enthusiasm among left-leaning voters. They may opt to abstain rather than support what they view as more of the same in Poland’s long-running political stand-off between liberals and right-wing populists.

Nawrocki’s supporters appear more ideologically unified and disciplined, offering him a path to success in case of low turnout or ballot spoilage in the run-off. A recent poll has shown Nawrocki might indeed be closing in on Trzaskowski, with just a 3pp difference between the two in a poll by Opinia24 for TVN, a broadcaster.

Feral apartment

The final week of campaigning has been dominated by scrutiny of Nawrocki’s personal finances. In April, he made a potentially costly mistake but not admitting he owned an apartment, which he acquired in 2012 through a care agreement with an elderly man. 

Trzaskowski and other candidates have made that into a campaign point, which Nawrocki and his team have struggled to respond to coherently, instead producing more documents and statements that undermined previous explanations. Nawrocki has eventually donated the flat to charity.

The furore over the apartment pushed Nawrocki to accuse the government of using state institutions to damage his candidacy. “The media, prosecution, and special services [are] acting on the orders of the government,” he said. 

(Don't) Give Tusk a Chance

Trzaskowski is promising to oversee the completion of the reforms that the Tusk-led coalition promised in 2023, having ousted PiS after eight years in power.

“If we want to complete the reforms promised by the democratic opposition, we need a president who is committed to constructive cooperation with the government but remains fully independent,” Trzaskowski told the newspaper Super Express on May 15. 

“Only then can we ensure that Polish families live better lives, small and medium-sized businesses thrive, the judicial chaos ends, and women can decide about their own lives and health. Poland also needs a head of state with broad international contacts who knows how to build coalitions,” Trzaskowski also said.

That said, the Tusk-led coalition government has also found itself at odds internally over issues like abortion before sending legislation to Duda.

For his part, Nawrocki has been attacking Trzaskowski for his ties to the Tusk government and the latter’s record in power so far. “There are moments when we must leave behind our political and party ambitions and speak out loud: [people need] railway and road infrastructure, security, a health care centre, and a good Polish school,” Nawrocki told one of his campaign rallies this week.

“There are moments when we must understand this. It seems that the only ones who do not are those currently in power in Poland, the Tusk government,” Nawrocki also said.