Palestine

US and Israel strike Iranian petrochemical hub, raising fears of supply shocks

Ben Aris in Berlin April 4, 2026

The US and Israel struck Iran’s major petrochemical complex on April 4, damaging multiple facilities in the southern Mahshahr region and raising concerns over global supply disruptions in plastics and fertilisers.

Three tankers exit Hormuz hugging Omani coast

Ben Aris in Berlin April 4, 2026

In what appears to be the first exit from the Persian Gulf by oil tankers without permission from Iran, three large vessels linked to Oman left the Strait of Hormuz by hugging the sultanate’s coastline, Bloomberg reported on April 3.

Iran war accelerates Chinese US treasure bill sell off

Ben Aris in Berlin April 4, 2026

The war in Iran has triggered a potential step change in the rate that China is selling off its US Treasury bill holdings. T-bill holdings are a good barometer for geopolitical tensions. China and the BRICS are dumping their T-bills.

UPDATE: Iranian tribesmen hunt downed US f-15 pilot as Black Hawk allegedly shot down

bnm Gulf bureau April 3, 2026

Armed Iranian tribesmen are hunting for a downed US pilot in southwestern Iran as American forces deploy Black Hawks and a C-130 in a large-scale search, with reports of a US helicopter also shot down near the border.

Gulf Islamic sukuk bond spreads hit five-year highs amid Iran war uncertainty

Ben Aris in Berlin April 3, 2026

Yields on Gulf sovereign and corporate debt have surged to their widest spreads in five years as the war involving Iran drives a sharp reassessment of regional risk, according to Fitch Ratings.

Iran denies US helicopter assault on Kharg Island

bnm Gulf bureau April 3, 2026

Iran denied rumours of a US helicopter assault on Kharg Island, its main oil export hub, as speculation mounts over a possible ground operation targeting Iranian coastal infrastructure in the Persian Gulf.

US influence in the Gulf fades as Qatar, Oman strike deals with Tehran

Ben Aris in Berlin April 3, 2026

The US influence in the Gulf is fading as the war goes into its fifth week with no sign of ending and regional players are starting to cut deals with Tehran to end the attacks on their territories.

Iran publishes images of downed US F-15 it says belonged to UK-based squadron

bnm Gulf bureau April 3, 2026

Iran published images of what it said was a downed US fighter jet from the 48th Fighter Wing based at RAF Lakenheath.

Saudi Sadara petrochemical giant closed down creating a new plastics chokepoint

Ben Aris in Berlin April 3, 2026

Sadara Chemical Company, the $20bn joint venture between Saudi Aramco (Tadawul: 2222) and Dow Chemical Company (DOW), has halted all production at its Jubail complex in eastern Saudi Arabia indefinitely without a shot being fired by Iran.

Iran president Pezeshkian issues public letter to US public condemning US aggression

Ben Aris in Berlin April 3, 2026

Iran’s president Masoud Pezeshkian has issued a public letter addressed to the American people, defending Tehran’s actions in the face of what he called, “US unprovoked aggression”.

China blames US-Israeli 'illegal' war for Hormuz crisis and refuses to back Trump's 'just take it' call

bnm Gulf bureau April 2, 2026

China blamed the Hormuz crisis squarely on "US-Israel illegal military operations" and rejected Trump's call for countries to seize the strait, while declining to join the UK-led 35-nation shipping summit.

UPDATE: Eight killed as strike destroys Iran's landmark B1 bridge in Karaj

bnm Gulf bureau April 2, 2026

A US-Israeli strike on the B1 bridge in Alborz province killed eight people and wounded a number of residents and tourists.

MOSCOW BLOG: Pax Americana exposed as a paper tiger

Ben Aris in Berlin April 2, 2026

Superficially the war in Iran has dealt Ukraine a huge blow. The White House is now completely distracted, and the Trump administration seems to have abandoned, or at least paused, the ceasefire negotiations with Russia.

UK convenes 35-nation summit to plot Hormuz reopening as Washington stays away

bnm Gulf bureau April 2, 2026

The UK convened 35 nations to discuss reopening the Strait of Hormuz after 23 attacks on commercial ships, with the US, Iran and Oman all absent and Trump telling allies to secure the waterway themselves.

Iran's largest steelmaker Mobarakeh halts all production after second strike

bnm Gulf bureau April 2, 2026

Iran's largest steelmaker Mobarakeh Steel halted all production and sent workers home after a second US-Israeli strike caused "fundamental destruction" to its Isfahan complex, crippling a key non-oil export sector.

Iran's NZ embassy fires back at Trump 'stone age' taunt with AI-generated mockery

bnm Gulf bureau April 2, 2026

Iran's NZ embassy mocked Trump's "stone age" threat with AI images of the US president as a caveman beside an ancient Persian king, the latest in a social media information war running alongside the military conflict.

Iran-linked hackers claim breach of Israeli air defence contractor PSK Wind

bnm Gulf bureau April 2, 2026

Iran-linked hackers Handala claimed to have breached Israeli air defence contractor PSK Wind Technologies and passed classified command and control data to resistance missile units, though the claims remain unverified.

Trump vows to bomb Iran 'back to the stone ages' in rambling primetime address

bnm Gulf bureau April 2, 2026

Trump's first primetime address on the Iran war drew fire from all sides after he vowed to bomb Iran "back to the stone ages," sent oil surging past $105 and admitted he no longer cares about Iran's buried uranium stockpile.

Cost of living shock deepens as energy crisis hits G7 spending – Oxford Economics

Ben Aris in Berlin April 2, 2026

A surge in energy prices following the escalation of the Iran conflict is intensifying the cost-of-living crisis across the G7, dragging consumer spending growth to its weakest level since 2022.

A long Iran war will lead to severe shortages, says Oxford Economics

Ben Aris in Berlin April 2, 2026

A sustained escalation of the US/Israel-Iran conflict could push global oil markets beyond a price shock into severe physical shortages, with rationing, supply chain disruption and recessionary pressures becoming increasingly likely.

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