The new Iranian leader has made three harsh demands to bring the Gulf war to an end, as the new regime takes an increasing hardline to the US invaders.

In his second 12-minute address, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei demanded: the rapid withdrawal of American forces from the Middle East; complete lifting of sanctions within 60 days; and long-term financial compensation for economic damages.

Then came the ultimatum. If these are not respected, Iran will escalate economically, militarily, and formally adopt a policy of developing a nuclear weapon after years of being ambiguous on this goal.

Khamenei said the Strait of Hormuz could be closed completely and Tehran would formalise security agreements with both Moscow and Beijing, solidifying the emerging CRINK alliance, which until now remains a convenient marriage of convenience. Within hours, both Beijing and Moscow issued statements that unequivocally aligned with Tehran’s framework, albeit using guarded language.

Analysts say the hardening of Tehran’s line is not unexpected. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi complained that Tehran sees the White House as wholly unreliable and after it backtracked on agreement twice in the last few months, Tehran believes the Trump administration is only using peace talks as an excuse to buy time for attacks. In particular, Araghchi reached a preliminary deal with the US in Geneva on the eve of the start of Operation Epic Fury, via Omani mediation, only to witness the attack begin the next day. “A deal was within reach,” he complained in an angry post on social media a few days later.

Trump's decapitation strategy in Iran appears to have backfired as many of the more liberal voices in the Islamic Republic have either been sidelined or killed, by Trump’s own admission. Ayatollah Khamenei has been replaced by his son, who is a hardliner and close to the IRGC.

Trump peace offer 

The Trump Administration has also begun "initial discussions" on what a potential peace deal with Iran might look like, reports Axios. However, a wide gulf exists between the positions of Tehran and Washington suggesting no noegotiations will start anytime soon.

US officials are planning the below terms:

1. No missile program for five years

2. Zero uranium enrichment

3. Decommissioning of the reactors at the Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow nuclear facilities

4. Strict outside observation protocols around the creation and use of centrifuges and related machinery that could advance a nuclear weapons program

5. Arms control treaties with regional countries that include a missile cap no higher than 1,000

6. End of financing for Iranian proxy groups

US officials said the expectation is there will still be 2-3 additional weeks of fighting and Trump's envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff are involved in the discussions.

IRGC hard line 

Reports from Iran make it clear that the IRGC is not interested in gradual change or compromise. It is in an existential fight with the US and intends to escalate and do as much economic damage as possible as its main leverage in the conflict with the US. Previously running a policy of compromise and accommodation, as evidenced by the Chinese-brokered rapprochement with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), the new leadership are pushing for structural changes: removing American influence from the region, restoring Iran’s military position, and forcing renewed negotiations on the global balance of power.

Rising oil prices, regional instability, increasing alignment with China and Russia, and vulnerabilities in global trade routes have changed the strategic landscape and improved Tehran’s hand as the US campaign already appears to have been a strategic blunder.