Israel
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Iran has not yet replied to latest US proposal, contradicting Trump
An Iranian source has said that Tehran has not yet responded to the latest US proposal to end the war, contradicting US reports that the White House believes a one-page 14-point memorandum is close.
ECB warns Iran war energy shock could force rate adjustment
ECB Executive Board member Piero Cipollone warned the eurozone may need to adjust interest rates as the Iran war energy shock pushes inflation to 3% and oil supply losses outstrip the 1973, 1979 and 2022 crises combined.
Project Freedom fails and highlights Trump's weak hand
The White House launched Project Freedom on May 4, but US President Donald Trump cancelled it less than 48 hours later in a move that the Iranian press took as a failure and retreat.
COMMENT: Iran war’s geopolitical risks alone is not enough to cause a global recession
The geopolitical shocks of the Gulf war are dominating headlines and investor sentiment, but these shocks rarely act as the primary engine of global economic downturns, according to a note by Ben May of Oxford Economics.
COMMENT: How Trump lost Europe in Armenia
Forty-eight European heads of state met in Yerevan on May 4 with no American present. The Yerevan EPC was the moment Europe stopped trying to prevent the transatlantic rupture and started managing it.
Japan quietly resumes Russian oil imports as Hormuz crisis forces a pragmatic rethink
A cargo of Russian oil arrived in Japan for the first time since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz as pragmatism overtakes principles in Tokyo.
Confusion reigns as America’s Operation Project Freedom attempts to escort tankers through Hormuz
Confusion reigned after Iran claimed it had hit two US warships attempting to escort US-flagged tankers through the Strait of Hormuz on May 4, while the US said two US tankers had made the passage.
COMMENT: Gulf economies face uneven shocks to their external position as war disrupts trade flows
The impact of the war on Gulf economies’ external positions is diverging sharply, with some states facing severe current account deterioration while others benefit from higher energy prices Capital Economics said in a note.
Where food accounts for a large slice of imports - Statista
Amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and supply chain disruptions caused by the near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz, concerns over global food security have intensified, Statista reports.
The Strait of Hormuz is also a digital chokepoint
The IRGC closed the Strait of Hormuz on March 2, choking off a fifth of the world’s oil supplies and causing the “worst oil crisis in history.” However, the IRGC has another card to play: cut the internet cables that run through the Strait.
COMMENT: Did Europe just hand the future to Madrid?
Spain's Socialist government is delivering Europe's fastest growth, the EU's most outspoken stance on Gaza, the continent's biggest Chinese EV investments and Latin America's only serious European interlocutor.
Iran demands Gulf states pay compensation for war damage
Iran's UN envoy has demanded that Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait and Jordan pay full compensation for war damage, accusing them of complicity in aggression, in a claim that reverses the position taken by the six states themselves.
How Tehran systematically dismantled America's Gulf military network in the first days of the war- NBC
When US and Israeli forces launched Operation Epic Fury on February 28, striking Iran's nuclear sites, missile factories and military infrastructure, the Trump administration was expecting a walk in the park. It wasn't.
Trump tells Netanyahu that Israel must limit strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon
US President Donald Trump revealed that he instructed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to limit military operations in Lebanon to surgical strikes against Hezbollah.
Iran's oil sector fails to "explode" as Trump's shut-in deadline passes
The US blockade of tankers serving Iran’s oil exports is intended to cut Iranian oil exports to near-zero and force its production to stop as storage tanks fill, forcing Tehran to return to the negotiation table. The plan hasn't worked.
Why global population collapse will keep the wars coming
Demographers warned for decades that ageing, declining states grow more dangerous, not less. The wars now spreading from Eastern Europe to the Gulf to East Asia look increasingly like the opening engagements of a long contest over who outlasts whom.
Stolen Ukrainian grain is being unloaded in Haifa, EU threatens sanctions
Ukraine summoned Israel's ambassador to Kyiv on April 27 and filed a formal protest after a second shipment of grain allegedly stolen from Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories docked at the port of Haifa, in a diplomatic scandal.
Iran's Nikzad warns of further US military action
Iran's deputy parliament speaker Ali Nikzad has warned of possible further US military action but argued direct confrontation, economic siege, proxy warfare and media pressure would all backfire on Washington given Iran's deterrent capability.
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Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed as Iran maintains shipping restrictions
Only four vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on April 26 according to Kpler data, Tasnim has reported, indicating the world's most important oil chokepoint remains effectively closed at Iran's discretion despite the April 7 ceasefire.
COMMENT: Russia’s Iran gamble risks sacrificing Gulf strategy for tactical gains
Russia’s deepening entanglement in the crisis around Iran is delivering short-term geopolitical dividends, but at a potentially high strategic cost.