The long-delayed and increasingly costly Rail Baltica project will not be completed by 2030 as previously planned, and there is no final deadline for finishing the full rail line, the European Court of Auditors said on its website on January 19.

EU auditors have warned that the Rail Baltica railway will overrun its long-promised 2030 target, with no clear end date now set for completion of the entire line.

The Rail Baltica project in Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia is intended to create a new European-gauge rail corridor linking the Baltic states with Poland and the rest of the EU, but progress on the ground varies sharply between the three countries.

In an assessment published on January 19, the European Court of Auditors said the cross-border project, which has faced years of delays and ballooning costs, has slipped far beyond its original timetable. What was once billed as a single, fully operational railway by the end of the decade is now reduced to a partial delivery.

“And for Rail Baltica, which was once expected to be completed by 2030, the situation is even more uncertain,” Annemie Turtelboom, a member of the European Court of Auditors, told a virtual news conference. “Now, 2030 is the envisaged date to complete only the first phase, and therefore, there is no timeline for the full project.”

Auditors found that the projected price tag for the European standard-gauge railway has surged dramatically, rising 2.6-fold in just six years to €23.8bn – almost four times higher than the initial estimate.

Turtelboom attributed the escalation to weaknesses in early planning, frequent revisions to the project’s scope and repeated design changes. She also pointed to structural decisions taken midstream, including dividing the scheme into two phases, which she said inevitably added further costs and complexity.

The watchdog further concluded that the European Union’s wider ambition to complete the core Trans-European Transport Network, known as TEN-T, by 2030 is now out of reach, with the outlook deteriorating rather than improving.

Rail Baltica said in a statement on January 20 that it agreed with the report's conclusions. "Overall, the cost growth is largely attributable to the limited maturity of early estimates and subsequent design and scope refinements," the statement said.

It noted "significant external pressures, including approximately 40% cumulative inflation in the Baltic states between 2017 and 2023, higher construction and energy prices, supply-chain disruptions, and the impact of Russia’s war against Ukraine."

Across the eight major EU infrastructure schemes examined, overall costs have climbed by nearly a quarter over the same period, a rise driven largely by Rail Baltica and the Lyon-Turin rail connection, the auditors said.

In Lithuania, construction has advanced furthest. Several sections of the new line are already under development, including works around Kaunas, which is expected to become a key junction connecting the Baltic route to the existing network towards Poland. Authorities in Vilnius have prioritised land acquisition and technical design, allowing physical construction to move ahead earlier than elsewhere. Even so, cost pressures and revised technical standards have slowed the pace.

In Latvia, the project faces the most scrutiny. Riga Central Station and the airport connection are flagship elements, both involving complex urban construction. Auditors and national officials have flagged governance weaknesses and funding gaps, with repeated redesigns contributing to delays. The Latvian section is also among the most expensive per kilometre, reflecting the scale of inner-city works and property constraints.

In Estonia, progress has been uneven. While planning and environmental permits are largely in place, full-scale construction has lagged initial schedules. 

A Riigikogu (Estonian parliament) special anti-corruption committee on January 19 addressed planned cutbacks in Latvia's portion of the Rail Baltica project, which could leave the 60-kilometer section between Riga and Estonia on the old 1,520 mm gauge. The standard gauge in the EU is 1,435 mm.

The committee addressed the issue of a €4.4 bn funding gap in the Latvian stretch of Rail Baltica, with a technical bottleneck affecting Riga and the Salaspils-Daugava bridge, which will span the Daugava River just east of Riga.