Webinar & Podcast: Whither Ukraine in 2021?

Webinar & Podcast: Whither Ukraine in 2021?
Whither Ukraine in 2021? Can Ukraine get through 2021 without an IMF package? (Spoiler: no)
By Ben Aris in Berlin November 26, 2020

20min webinar & podcast with:

Ben Aris, bne IntelliNews editor-in-chief

Elina Ribakova, deputy chief economist of the Institute of International Finance (IIF)

Evghenia Sleptsova, senior economist for Russia & CIS at Oxford Economics about the country’s plight.

 

Watch here

Listen here

 

 

 

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) $5bn Stand-by agreement (SBA) with Ukraine has been de facto suspended due to back tracking on reforms. With a heavy debt repayment schedule in the second half of 2021, can Ukraine get through next year without a crisis?

bne IntelliNews’ editor Ben Aris talked with Elina Ribakova, deputy chief economist of the Institute of International Finance (IIF) and Evghenia Sleptsova, senior economist for Russia & CIS at Oxford Economics, about the country’s plight.

With just over $26bn in gross international reserves (GIR), equivalent to 4.4 months of future import cover, the government is fine for the time being. And with only light debt redemption schedules in the first half of 2021 that should not be a problem either.

However, Ukraine is due to repay $11bn of debt in the second half of the year and without a functioning IMF programme the only way it can cope will be to dig deeply into its reserves.

Sleptsova says that trying to meet this debt without IMF help “is not an option.” Ribakova added that it seems the government is preparing the ground for an attempt to print its way out of trouble in the new year.

You can watch the 20mins discussion here, or listen to a podcast version here on bne’s site. 

 

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