Ukraine’s industrial output increased 0.6% year on year in August, accelerating from 0.2% y/y growth in July, the State Statistics Service reported on September 22. Seasonally adjusted output declined 0.6% month on month in August.

In 8M21, industrial output expanded by 1.7% y/y (vs. a 6.5% y/y decline in 8M20).

Manufacturing output rose 2.2% y/y in August (after a 1.8% y/y decline in July). In particular, metallurgical output climbed by 5.4% y/y (vs. 8.4% y/y growth in July), machinery output advanced 5.1% y/y (3.8% y/y in July). At the same time, the output in food industry declined 4.8% y/y (vs. a 19.2% y/y decline in July), chemicals production declined 5.6% y/y (-5.8% y/y in July), pharmaceuticals production plummeted 33.4% y/y (+13.7% y/y in July).

Mining sector production dropped 2.5% y/y in August (vs. a 4.0% y/y increase in July). In particular, iron ore production declined 6.7% y/y (+13.3%), coal production dropped 9.9% y/y (-8.1%), oil and gas production slid 1.6% y/y (-2.1%).

The supply of electricity and natural gas inched up 0.3% y/y (vs. 2.2% y/y growth in July).

Regionally, the highest industrial growth in August was in Odesa (27.5% y/y), Zaporizhia and Zhytomyr regions (both 8.0% y/y). Output declined in 11 out of 25 regions. It dropped the most in Ukraine-controlled Luhansk (-37.9% y/y), Kirovohrad (-36.5% y/y) and Cherkasy (-13.2% y/y), regions.

The post-crisis recovery of Ukraine’s industry is very slow. Iron ore production is in decline again, as global markets for this commodity are not booming anymore. The upsurge in metallurgy is slowing amid stabilised external demand.

There are no factors which could help Ukraine’s industrial production to accelerate through the end of the year, analysts at Concorde Capital believe. They expect Ukraine’s industrial output to increase 1.5% y/y in 2021 (vs. 4.5% y/y decline in 2020).