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Syrian Arab Republic

Iran demands guarantees and reparations in ceasefire talks as Gulf mediators step in

Ben Aris in Berlin March 12, 2026

Iran has told regional intermediaries that any ceasefire with the US and Israel must be tied to sweeping security guarantees and compensation, as back-channel diplomacy intensifies amid a widening regional conflict. d

TEHRAN BLOG: Permits-for-passage system emerges as the US heads towards a strategic defeat in Iran

Ben Aris in Berlin March 12, 2026

A “permits-for-passage" system emerges as the US heads towards a strategic defeat in Iran after the White House makes a string of strategic blunders.

Oil price above Russian budget benchmark, but cautious MinFin planning spending cuts

Ben Aris in Berlin March 12, 2026

The price of Russian crude rose above the level assumed in the country’s federal budget for the first time in more than a year on the back of turmoil on the international energy markets as the Middle East conflict reshapes Moscow’s finances.

Russia pockets €6bn in fossil fuel revenues in first two weeks of war

Ben Aris in Berlin March 12, 2026

Russia has pocketed over $6bn of excess revenues in just the first two weeks of war in Iran, the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air said.

COMMENT: Strategic reserve releases cannot replace an open Strait of Hormuz

Ben Aris in Berlin March 12, 2026

A proposed record release of emergency strategic oil reserves from the International Energy Agency (IEA) could offer temporary relief to global markets if Middle Eastern supply disruptions deepen, but it will not prevent prices from rising again.

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