A toxic cocktail of economic, social, geopolitical and ethnic issues has elevated the political temperature across Southeast Europe. There have been violent clashes in northern Kosovo, mass protests in Bulgaria, Romania and Serbia, and a steady stream of secession threats from within Bosnia & Herzegovina. 

Behind these are multiple factors. There are the long-standing ethnic tensions that plague the Western Balkans, where Serbs have never accepted the loss of Kosovo, which declared its independence 15 years ago, and Bosnia remains a nation divided by religion and ethnicity. 

Then there is the polycrisis stemming from the last few years of pandemic and war that has put citizens of all countries in Europe under pressure as inflation squeezes disposable incomes and makes essentials such as food and fuel less affordable. This is especially acute in Europe’s southeastern corner, where people were already considerably poorer than their neighbours to the north and east. 

The strike and mass protests by teachers in Romania reflected the failure of their wages to keep pace with inflation, and many other public sector employees face a similar plight. In Moldova, unhappiness with soaring inflation and still sky-high gas prices helped the Moscow-backed Shor Party get protesters out onto the streets for weeks on end. 

Another factor is the aspiration of citizens from across the region to live in a modern European nation, and in particular one with opportunities for all and without the rampant corruption that plagues the region. This contributed to the emigration of millions of people from the region over the last few decades, and the protests by hundreds of thousands more. 

Living in a modern European country is a dream voiced by protesters in Southeast Europe in recent years, including those in EU countries, and a common theme running through the anti-violence protests in Serbia and those against Bulgaria’s pro-Russia president. 

But sometimes the steps needed to achieve this goal are controversial. The concession made by North Macedonia’s government to Bulgaria in order to start EU accession negotiations dismayed many of the population and efforts to push constitutional changes through the parliament could be met with protests. 

Russia has sought to maintain its influence in the Western Balkans despite the region’s aspirations to join the EU. While Russian influence has declined in Southeast Europe as successive nations joined Nato and the EU, Moscow has the ability to inflame existing tensions in the region. Most notably, intelligence reports indicate a Russian plot to destabilise Moldova. 

And the last ingredient in this mix is the actions of local politicians in fuelling citizens’ anger – whether it’s the years of pro-secession rhetoric by Bosnian Serb leader (and Putin fan) Milorad Dodik or Romanian President Klaus Iohannis’ less calculated but still incendiary comments about protesting teachers. 

Kosovo

Violent clashes broke out in northern Kosovo at the end of May, after Pristina installed new mayors in four municipalities populated mainly by ethnic Serbs. The mayors were elected after local Serbs staged a mass walkout from state institutions last year, and with Serbs boycotting the by-elections, the new mayors are not viewed as legitimate. Dozens of people were injured on May 31 in clashes between Serb protesters, Kosovan police and KFOR peacekeepers. Across the border, Serbia put its army on high alert, while Nato sent an additional 700 peacekeepers to the region. Protests have continued into June, though the situation has calmed. Pristina is now under heavy pressure from its international allies to de-escalate the situation – failure to do so is likely to lead to more unrest. 

Serbia

Two mass shootings at the beginning of May – one by a high-school pupil against his classmates – shocked the nation and triggered a wave of protests. Critics of the government have attributed these partly to a culture of violence they say has been fostered by pro-regime media which broadcast violent reality shows and commentators glorifying war criminals. The government has been scrambling to respond. Initial efforts targeted at areas such as gun control failed to stem public outrage, and President Aleksandar Vucic has announced that early elections will take place this year. Meanwhile, the anti-violence protests continue, and protesters say they plan more radical action. 

Bosnia & Herzegovina 

Peace in Bosnia is increasingly uneasy. Republika Srpska President Milorad Dodik and other top Bosnian Serb politicians have been calling for years for the secession of the entity and the breakup of Bosnia. Resistance to the authority of Bosnia’s state-level authorities has grown, and Dodik announced in April he has an action plan for secession. As an adherent of Russian President Vladimir Putin, there are fears Dodik could be encouraged by Moscow to destabilise Bosnia to put further pressure on the West during the war in Ukraine. On top of the inflammatory rhetoric by nationalist leaders, Bosnia is also struggling with pervasive corruption and democratic backsliding.  

Moldova

Moldova is facing a barrage of efforts to destabilise the country from within and overthrow the pro-EU government, according to intelligence reports. The Shor Party, led by fugitive oligarch Ilan Shor, led months of regular protests believed to have been funded by Moscow. More protests are likely as opposition parties use the high gas price paid by Moldovan citizens to put pressure on Chisinau and have threatened action if prices don’t come down. Fear that Russia-backed separatists in Transnistria could become embroiled in the war in neighbouring Ukraine have not been realised, but another pro-Russian region, Gagauzia, is now seeking more autonomy and has become a potential source of instability. 

Romania 

Thousands of Romanian teachers went on strike at the end of May calling for higher wages as their salaries had been eroded by inflation. They several times took to the streets of Bucharest. This already had political consequences as neither of the two ruling parties wanted to take responsibility for refusing teachers a pay rise ahead of elections next year, while President Klaus Iohannis’ dismissive comments about the striking teachers only inflamed the situation. The strike has currently been suspended after a new pay offer, but unions say failure to follow through will be met with more protests. Moreover, as reported by bne IntelliNews, other public service workers are also unhappy with their wages and may come out on strike too.

Bulgaria 

A new government has been appointed in Bulgaria, but the political situation is far from calm. The rift between pro-Russian and pro-Western politicians that opened up after the invasion of Ukraine remains deep, with President Rumen Radev ranged on the opposite site from the Western-leaning government. Within the government populist Gerb-SDS and reformist CC-DB are uneasy partners, not least because of the efforts by key members of CC-DB to bring Gerb politicians to account for corruption during the party’s time in power. Bulgaria has seen numerous mass protests in recent years, mainly by pro-Western urban Bulgarians who want their country to tackle corruption and become a modern, European nation. Collapse of the government or visible efforts to thwart its reform agenda would likely bring them onto the streets again. 

Slovenia

The protests by demonstrators mounted on bicycles that became a common sight in Ljubljana during the coronavirus pandemic started again in June. On the first anniversary of the Slovenian government led by PM Robert Golob, cyclists held a warning protest. They accused the government of making little progress in fulfilling some key commitments, primarily in the healthcare sector. A representative of the Voice of the People warned large-scale cycling protests could follow if protesters’ concerns are not addressed. 

North Macedonia

North Macedonia’s government is trying to get constitutional changes, which are necessary for the country's EU accession process, through the parliament. The changes, demanded by neighbouring Bulgaria as a condition for allowing the start of accession negotiations, are unpopular in North Macedonia and strongly opposed by VMRO-DPMNE and other opposition parties. PM Dimitar Kovacevski is in talks with VMRO-DPMNE leader Hristijan Mickoski in an effort to get the numbers needed in parliament to pass the changes. However, this is a contentious issue and protests could erupt as adoption approaches.