This report covers the key macroeconomic and financial releases for Bulgaria for the period since October 14, 2015.
Bulgaria’s real GDP growth quickened to 2.9% y/y in the third quarter from an upwardly revised 2.6% y/y in the previous three months, a seasonally-adjusted flash estimate from the National Statistics Institute (NSI) showed on November 13.

On November 5, the European Commission has improved its outlook of Bulgaria’s GDP growth to 1.7% for 2015 and 1.5% for 2016. Also on November 5, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has raised its forecasts of the country’s GDP growth to 1.8% in 2015 and 2% in 2016.

Bulgaria's combined business climate indicator increased by one point m/m in October, after falling by 2.9 points m/m in September. The industrial production growth decelerated sharply to 0.6% y/y in September from 4.3% y/y in August. The decline in the construction output widened to 2.7% y/y in September from 0.3% y/y the month before. The retail sales (at constant prices) fell further in September, with the decline deepening to 2.5% y/y from 1.9% y/y in August.

The Bulgarian cabinet has adopted the 2016 budget bill that envisages a deficit of 2% of GDP, down from 3.3% of GDP this year.

Key points:
• The CPI fell by 0.6% y/y in October, after edging up 0.1% y/y in September
• Bulgaria's consolidated budget surplus was BGN57mn (€29mn) at end-October, equal to 0.1% of the projected 2015 GDP, the finance ministry said in a preliminary estimate
• The current account surplus widened to €1.17bn in January-August from €948mn in the same period of 2014